Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,951–3,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2951	New Iberia Manor South	3.7%	82.5	C	LA	NEW IBERIA	100	NEXION HEALTH INC
2952	GARDEN TERRACE HEALTHCARE CENTER OF FEDERAL WAY	3.7%	82.5	B	WA	FEDERAL WAY	70	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2953	SPRING CREEK HEALTH & REHAB	3.7%	82.5	B	AR	CABOT	109	RHC OPERATIONS INC
2954	PARKVIEW REHABILITATION CENTER AT WINTER PARK	3.7%	82.5	A	FL	WINTER PARK	138	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2955	GREENLEAF HEALTH CAMPUS	3.7%	82.5	C	IN	ELKHART	60	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2956	CEDAR CREEK HEALTH CAMPUS	3.7%	82.5	B	IN	LOWELL	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2957	Autumn Care of Cornelius	3.7%	82.5	A	NC	Cornelius	102	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2958	Christian Park Village	3.7%	82.5	B	MI	Escanaba	59	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2959	OAKWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME	3.7%	82.5	B	TX	VIDOR	0	TYLER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2960	Pine Lodge	3.7%	82.4	B	WV	BECKLEY	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2961	Prestonsburg Health Care Center	3.7%	82.4	B	KY	Prestonsburg	56	WHEATEN LLC
2962	Greenwood Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.7%	82.4	B	KY	Bowling Green	128	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
2963	NEIGHBORHOODS AT QUAIL CREEK, THE	3.7%	82.4	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
2964	TIDWELL LIVING CENTER	3.7%	82.4	A	OK	WILBURTON	55	—
2965	STONEBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.7%	82.4	A	CA	LOS GATOS	73	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
2966	Lake City Center for Nursing and Healing LLC	3.7%	82.4	B	GA	LAKE CITY	242	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2967	RAINBOW HEALTH CARE COMMUNITY AND RAINBOW ASSISTED	3.7%	82.4	D	OK	BRISTOW	106	MLS ACQUISITION LLC
2968	Shelby Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.7%	82.4	C	MI	Shelby Township	212	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
2969	SEAL ROCK HEALTHCARE	3.7%	82.4	A	ME	SACO	105	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
2970	Mountain Valley of Cascadia	3.7%	82.4	A	ID	Kellogg	68	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
2971	BIRMINGHAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER EAST	3.7%	82.4	C	AL	BIRMINGHAM	132	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2972	WESTGATE GARDENS CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.4	B	CA	VISALIA	140	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2973	The Springs At Oldham Reserve	3.7%	82.3	C	KY	La Grange	50	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2974	COUNTRY LAWN CTR FOR REHAB	3.7%	82.3	A	OH	NAVARRE	88	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
2975	KADIMA REHABILITATION & NURSING AT IRWIN	3.7%	82.3	C	PA	NORTH HUNTINGDON	120	KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
2976	EDENBROOK OF ROCHESTER	3.7%	82.3	D	MN	ROCHESTER	81	—
2977	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF CORPU	3.7%	82.3	C	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2978	Medilodge of Portage	3.7%	82.3	B	MI	Portage	117	B&Y TRUST
2979	OAKWOOD COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	3.7%	82.3	A	TN	DYERSBURG	50	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
2980	HEWITT HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	3.7%	82.3	B	CT	SHELTON	206	—
2981	FRANKLIN PLAZA EXTENDED CARE	3.7%	82.3	A	OH	CLEVELAND	178	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
2982	HIGHLAND REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.3	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	162	—
2983	FULTON MANOR CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.3	D	MO	FULTON	52	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2984	PruittHealth-Town Center	3.7%	82.3	A	NC	Harrisburg	70	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2985	CASCADES OF ST ANNE	3.7%	82.3	D	WA	SEATTLE	47	—
2986	SOUTH BAY POST ACUTE CARE	3.7%	82.3	A	CA	CHULA VISTA	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2987	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF CLEVELAND	3.7%	82.3	A	TN	CLEVELAND	100	WHEATEN LLC
2988	Aspen Transitional Rehabilitation	3.7%	82.3	C	ID	Meridian	30	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
2989	PIONEER THERAPY AND LIVING	3.7%	82.3	B	AR	MELBOURNE	86	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2990	ROYAL OF COTUIT	3.7%	82.3	C	MA	MASHPEE	120	—
2991	SENIOR VILLAGE HEALTHCARE	3.7%	82.3	B	OK	BLANCHARD	50	BRIDGES ESOP INC
2992	LIFE CARE CENTER OF LAS VEGAS	3.7%	82.3	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	178	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2993	AMHERST MANOR NURSING HOME	3.7%	82.3	A	OH	AMHERST	114	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2994	SCOTT HEALTH & REHABILITATION	3.7%	82.3	A	GA	ADRIAN	59	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2995	CARRIAGE INN OF STEUBENVILLE	3.7%	82.2	C	OH	STEUBENVILLE	120	BROWN & MURPHY HOLDING COMPANY INC
2996	ALDEN COURTS OF WATERFORD	3.7%	82.2	C	IL	AURORA	60	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2997	THE LAURELS OF UNIVERSITY PARK	3.7%	82.2	B	VA	RICHMOND	145	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2998	SUMMIT, THE	3.7%	82.2	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	64	—
2999	PRUITTHEALTH - SANTA ROSA	3.7%	82.2	B	FL	MILTON	120	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3000	STEPHENVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.7%	82.2	A	TX	STEPHENVILLE	0	GHC LTC MANAGEMENT, LLC

Showing 2,951–3,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.