Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,001–3,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3001	ST JAMES WELLNESS REHAB VILLAS	3.7%	82.2	C	IL	CRETE	110	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
3002	AMBASSADOR HEALTHCARE	3.7%	82.2	C	IN	CENTERVILLE	137	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3003	Mahoning Operating LLC	3.7%	82.2	C	PA	LEHIGHTON	142	—
3004	BAISCH NURSING CENTER	3.7%	82.2	A	MO	DE SOTO	61	KRISLEY PROPERTIES LLC
3005	WHEATRIDGE PARK CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.2	C	KS	LIBERAL	51	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
3006	CARE ONE AT MILLBURY	3.7%	82.2	D	MA	MILLBURY	154	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3007	West Woods of Niles	3.7%	82.2	B	MI	Niles	121	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
3008	BIRCH POINTE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.7%	82.1	D	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3009	ERWIN HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.1	B	TN	ERWIN	125	—
3010	CHRISTIAN CITY REHABILITATION CENTER	3.7%	82.1	A	GA	UNION CITY	200	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3011	RIVERWOOD HEALTH CARE	3.7%	82.1	B	CA	STOCKTON	99	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
3012	WILLOWS AT WILLARD THE	3.7%	82.1	B	OH	WILLARD	69	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3013	WEBSTER HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.7%	82.1	A	WV	COWEN	60	RRW LLC
3014	NHC HEALTHCARE, FARRAGUT	3.7%	82.1	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	106	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3015	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE -SYCAMORE VILLAGE CARE CENTER	3.7%	82.1	B	IN	KOKOMO	110	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3016	Life Care Center of the North Shore	3.7%	82.1	B	MA	LYNN	123	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3017	BELLTOWER HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.7%	82.1	B	IN	GRANGER	96	MAJOR HOSPITAL
3018	The Heights of Tyler	3.7%	82.1	B	TX	Tyler	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
3019	Signature Healthcare of Chapel Hill	3.7%	82.1	B	NC	Chapel Hill	108	WHEATEN LLC
3020	Midlands Health & Rehabilitation Center	3.7%	82.1	A	SC	Columbia	88	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
3021	ANDALUSIA MANOR	3.7%	82.1	A	AL	ANDALUSIA	154	SASSER ENTERPRISES INC
3022	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	3.6%	82.1	A	IN	GARRETT	76	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3023	WHEATRIDGE CARE CENTER	3.6%	82.1	C	CO	WHEAT RIDGE	65	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
3024	Amelia Manor Nursing Home	3.6%	82.1	B	LA	Lafayette	151	—
3025	MARQUIS MILL PARK	3.6%	82.1	C	OR	PORTLAND	77	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
3026	NHC HEALTHCARE, COLUMBIA	3.6%	82.1	A	TN	COLUMBIA	106	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3027	Brown's Health and Rehabilitation	3.6%	82.1	C	GA	STATESBORO	63	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
3028	VILLAGE OF THE FALLS	3.6%	82.1	F	OH	OLMSTED FALLS	36	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3029	IMMANUEL'S HEALTHCARE	3.6%	82.1	D	TX	FORT WORTH	0	TGR HEALTHCARE LLC
3030	Camarillo Healthcare Center	3.6%	82.1	A	CA	Camarillo	114	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3031	BRIDGEVIEW CENTER	3.6%	82.1	A	FL	ORMOND BEACH	139	LCE PARTNERS LLC
3032	UNION CITY CARE CENTER	3.6%	82.1	A	OH	UNION CITY	43	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
3033	PINE HILL REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS CENTER	3.6%	82.1	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	190	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
3034	TROY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	82.0	B	AL	TROY	220	—
3035	PruittHealth - Limestone	3.6%	82.0	A	GA	GAINESVILLE	104	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3036	FORSYTH CARE CENTER	3.6%	82.0	C	MO	FORSYTH	120	—
3037	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BERKELEY HEIGHTS	3.6%	82.0	D	NJ	BERKELEY HEIGHTS	130	MJH GROUP LLC
3038	Haven of Yuma	3.6%	82.0	B	AZ	YUMA	120	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
3039	COPIAH LIVING CENTER	3.6%	82.0	A	MS	CRYSTAL SPRINGS	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3040	NORTH SHORE HEALTH & REHAB FACILITY	3.6%	82.0	B	CO	LOVELAND	120	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
3041	DICKSON HEALTH AND REHAB	3.6%	82.0	B	TN	DICKSON	70	BARRES LLC
3042	RIDGE CREST AT MEADOW RIDGE	3.6%	82.0	B	CT	WEST REDDING	59	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
3043	COULTERVILLE REHAB & HCC	3.6%	82.0	A	IL	COULTERVILLE	75	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3044	ARLINGTON RESIDENCE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	82.0	C	TX	ARLINGTON	0	—
3045	Edenbrook Lakeside	3.6%	82.0	D	WI	MILWAUKEE	145	—
3046	PARKSIDE HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	3.6%	82.0	A	CA	EL CAJON	52	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3047	RIVER VALLEY REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	81.9	A	FL	BLOUNTSTOWN	150	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3048	LUDLOWE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	3.6%	81.9	A	CT	FAIRFIELD	144	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3049	THE OAKS CARE CENTER	3.6%	81.9	A	LA	PINEVILLE	136	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
3050	NORWICH SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	3.6%	81.9	C	OH	HILLIARD	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC

Showing 3,001–3,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.