Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,601–3,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3601	MIAMI JEWISH HEALTH SYSTEMS, INC	0.6%	76.6	B	FL	MIAMI	393	—
3602	ELKHART MEADOWS	0.6%	76.3	B	IN	ELKHART	58	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3603	Collinwood Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.6%	76.3	F	TX	PLANO	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3604	MERCY CIRCLE	0.6%	76.3	B	IL	CHICAGO	23	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
3605	CARROLL HOUSE	0.6%	76.3	F	MO	CARROLLTON	63	—
3606	VALLEY SENIOR LIVING ON COLUMBIA	0.6%	76.3	A	ND	GRAND FORKS	196	ALTRU HEALTH SYSTEM
3607	DIVINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT SYLVANIA	0.6%	76.3	C	OH	SYLVANIA	99	—
3608	PLACE AT DEANS BRIDGE, THE	0.6%	76.3	B	GA	AUGUSTA	100	—
3609	KINNIC HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	76.3	B	WI	RIVER FALLS	68	—
3610	NEIGHBORS - EAST NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	0.6%	76.3	A	WI	MENOMONIE	46	COUNTY OF DUNN
3611	STONEBRIDGE VILLA MARIE	0.6%	76.3	B	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
3612	PINECREST RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.6%	76.3	A	TX	LUFKIN	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
3613	Brookdale Trinity Towers	0.6%	76.3	C	TX	Corpus Christi	75	—
3614	HICO NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	76.3	B	TX	HICO	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
3615	English Valley Nursing Care Center	0.6%	76.3	A	IA	North English	44	—
3616	TOWER LODGE CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.3	C	NJ	WALL	60	—
3617	SERENITY HILL NURSING CENTER	0.6%	76.3	A	MA	WRENTHAM	44	—
3618	HILL NURSING HOME, INC.	0.6%	76.3	A	OK	IDABEL	51	—
3619	SMITHVILLE WESTERN CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.3	C	OH	WOOSTER	127	—
3620	Wesley on Grand	0.6%	76.3	A	IA	Des Moines	80	WESLEYLIFE
3621	SALEM CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.3	D	MO	SALEM	60	KRISLEY PROPERTIES LLC
3622	JEWISH HOME OF CENTRAL NEW YORK	0.6%	76.3	C	NY	SYRACUSE	132	—
3623	Ridgecrest Community Care Center	0.6%	76.3	A	LA	West Monroe	112	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
3624	FOUR COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	76.3	B	GA	RICHLAND	85	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3625	Sun Health La Loma Care Center	0.6%	76.3	C	AZ	LITCHFIELD PARK	43	SUN HEALTH SERVICES
3626	NORTHBROOK HEALTH AND REHAB	0.6%	76.3	F	IL	NORTHBROOK	147	—
3627	CAREGIVERS OF PLEASANT GROVE, INC	0.6%	76.3	C	AL	PLEASANT GROVE	64	—
3628	THE LIVING CENTER	0.6%	76.3	B	OK	ENID	50	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
3629	CENTRAL ISLAND HEALTHCARE	0.6%	76.3	C	NY	PLAINVIEW	202	—
3630	CENTER AT LINCOLN, LLC, THE	0.6%	76.3	A	CO	PARKER	96	—
3631	AVIR AT STEPHENVILLE	0.6%	76.3	C	TX	STEPHENVILLE	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3632	Madrid Home for the Aged	0.6%	76.3	D	IA	Madrid	64	WESTERN HOME SERVICES INC
3633	GRIMES CENTER	0.6%	76.3	B	CT	NEW HAVEN	114	YALE NEW HAVEN HEALTH SERVICES CORPORATION
3634	Edgebrook Care Center	0.6%	76.3	A	MN	EDGERTON	54	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
3635	ST ELIZABETH NURSING HOME	0.6%	76.3	D	WI	JANESVILLE	43	ILLUMINUS INC
3636	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT BLOSSOM	0.6%	76.3	C	OH	HUNTSBURG	76	—
3637	DR ARTHUR CLIFTON MCKINLEY CTR	0.6%	76.3	B	PA	BROOKVILLE	90	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
3638	Groveton Nursing Home	0.6%	76.1	A	TX	Groveton	0	—
3639	GOLDEN YEARS OF LAKE GENEVA	0.6%	76.1	A	WI	LAKE GENEVA	54	—
3640	WESTERN HILLS HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE	0.6%	76.1	D	TX	COMANCHE	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
3641	OAK BROOK HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.1	A	TX	WHITEHOUSE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3642	Stratford Specialty Care	0.6%	76.1	B	IA	Stratford	53	CARE INITIATIVES
3643	ELK RIVER HEALTH & NURSING CENTER OF WINCHESTER	0.6%	76.1	B	TN	WINCHESTER	80	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
3644	Park View Health Care Center	0.6%	76.1	A	MN	BUFFALO	92	CASSIA
3645	Fondulac Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	0.6%	76.1	D	IL	EAST PEORIA	98	—
3646	Colonial Manor Nursing Home	0.6%	76.1	C	OK	Tulsa	120	DIAKONOS GROUP LLC
3647	ABINGDON CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	76.1	C	NJ	GREEN BROOK	180	—
3648	Clarkson Community Care Center Inc	0.6%	76.1	B	NE	Clarkson	51	—
3649	MARGARET E. MOUL HOME	0.6%	76.1	A	PA	YORK	82	—
3650	LODGE OF THE WABASH	0.6%	76.1	B	IN	VINCENNES	70	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP

Showing 3,601–3,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.