Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,851–3,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3851	ST. PAULS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.9	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	59	ST PAUL S EPISCOPAL HOME INC
3852	MORRISTOWN MANOR	0.5%	74.9	B	IN	MORRISTOWN	119	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3853	HERITAGE HEALTH-HOOPESTON	0.5%	74.9	C	IL	HOOPESTON	75	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
3854	SILVER PINES NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.9	B	TX	BASTROP	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
3855	UNITED LIVING COMMUNITY	0.5%	74.9	D	SD	BROOKINGS	67	—
3856	THE HERITAGE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.9	C	NY	BROOKLYN	79	—
3857	JERSEY SHORE CENTER	0.5%	74.9	B	NJ	EATONTOWN	158	—
3858	PRINCETON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.6	A	WV	PRINCETON	120	—
3859	CANFIELD ACRES LLC DBA WINDSOR HOUSE AT CANFIELD	0.5%	74.6	A	OH	CANFIELD	96	—
3860	Ramsey Village	0.5%	74.6	B	IA	Des Moines	78	—
3861	Presbyterian Home Of SC - Foothills	0.5%	74.6	A	SC	Easley	22	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
3862	COVENTRY MEADOWS	0.5%	74.6	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	150	—
3863	MCCLAY SENIOR CARE	0.5%	74.6	A	MO	SAINT PETERS	60	—
3864	ABBOTT SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.6	B	MA	LYNN	55	—
3865	Fordsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	74.6	B	KY	Fordsville	67	—
3866	CUMBERLAND TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.5%	74.6	D	IN	PLAINFIELD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3867	CORNELL HALL CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.6	F	NJ	UNION	177	—
3868	ISABELLA GERIATRIC CENTER INC	0.5%	74.6	C	NY	NEW YORK	705	—
3869	PRUITTHEALTH - AUGUSTA HILLS	0.5%	74.6	B	GA	AUGUSTA	126	—
3870	MESQUITE POST ACUTE CARE	0.5%	74.6	D	TX	LUBBOCK	0	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3871	WAUKEGAN HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	74.6	C	IL	WAUKEGAN	112	—
3872	CARADAY OF LAMPASAS	0.5%	74.6	C	TX	LAMPASAS	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3873	ESTATES OF ST LOUIS, LLC, THE	0.5%	74.6	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	94	—
3874	Lomond Peak Nursing and Rehabilitation, LLC	0.5%	74.6	B	UT	Ogden	86	—
3875	THORNWALD HOME	0.5%	74.6	A	PA	CARLISLE	83	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
3876	EMMANUEL NURSING HOME	0.5%	74.6	D	MN	DETROIT LAKES	57	—
3877	Meadowbrook at Oconto Falls	0.5%	74.6	D	WI	Oconto Falls	99	—
3878	ALAMEDA HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.5%	74.6	A	CA	ALAMEDA	181	ALAMEDA HEALTH SYSTEM
3879	ST JOSEPH RESIDENCE	0.5%	74.6	A	NH	MANCHESTER	22	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
3880	Courtland Terrace	0.5%	74.6	B	NC	Gastonia	77	CAROMONT HEALTH INC
3881	WOODWARD SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.5%	74.6	C	OK	WOODWARD	80	BRIDGES ESOP INC
3882	Harold and Grace Upjohn Community Care Center	0.5%	74.6	B	MI	Kalamazoo	87	—
3883	CRESTWOOD TREATMENT CENTER	0.5%	74.6	A	CA	FREMONT	88	—
3884	TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME- CLEVELAND	0.5%	74.6	A	TN	CLEVELAND	108	—
3885	Juliette Manor	0.5%	74.6	A	WI	Berlin	37	FROEDTERT THEDACARE HEALTH INC
3886	GRAND VALLEY HEALTH & REHAB	0.5%	74.6	A	IN	MARTINSVILLE	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3887	BREWSTER CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.5%	74.6	A	OH	BREWSTER	60	—
3888	Henderson Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	74.6	A	KY	Henderson	90	—
3889	New Summit Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.5%	74.6	C	IL	ARLINGTON HEIGHTS	120	—
3890	SWISS VILLAGE	0.5%	74.6	B	IN	BERNE	128	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3891	ROBSTOWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.6	C	TX	ROBSTOWN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
3892	WESTMINSTER OAKS	0.5%	74.6	A	FL	TALLAHASSEE	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
3893	MEADOW VIEW NURSING CENTER	0.5%	74.6	C	PA	BERLIN	150	PREMIER THERAPY LLC
3894	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES CHILLICOTHE	0.5%	74.6	C	OH	CHILLICOTHE	48	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES HEALTH CARE
3895	ARLINGTON REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	74.6	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	117	—
3896	WILDFLOWER COURT	0.5%	74.6	A	AK	JUNEAU	57	CITY AND BOROUGH OF JUNEAU ALASKA
3897	CLEARVIEW	0.5%	74.6	A	WI	JUNEAU	40	—
3898	AVIATA AT THE SEA - POMPANO BEACH	0.5%	74.6	F	FL	POMPANO BEACH	83	—
3899	Lindengrove New Berlin	0.5%	74.6	C	WI	NEW BERLIN	110	ILLUMINUS INC
3900	HIGHLANDS HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	74.3	A	AL	SCOTTSBORO	50	THE HEALTH CARE AUTHORITY OF THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE

Showing 3,851–3,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.