Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,601–4,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4601	NEWFANE REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.9	A	NY	NEWFANE	165	—
4602	AARON MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	69.9	B	CT	CHESTER	60	—
4603	SOUTHFIELD VILLAGE	0.3%	69.9	A	IN	SOUTH BEND	60	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
4604	Good Samaritan Society - Pine River	0.3%	69.9	B	MN	PINE RIVER	33	SANFORD
4605	WOODVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	TX	WOODVILLE	0	TYLER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4606	THE HAVEN OF FARMER CITY	0.3%	69.9	C	IL	FARMER CITY	56	—
4607	HELEN HAYES HOSPITAL R H C F	0.3%	69.9	A	NY	WEST HAVERSTRAW	25	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
4608	MS CARE CENTER OF DEKALB	0.3%	69.9	A	MS	DE KALB	60	—
4609	HERITAGE VILLAGE NURSING HOME	0.3%	69.9	D	OK	HOLDENVILLE	118	—
4610	Cascades at Desert View	0.3%	69.9	A	ID	Buhl	57	QUEST FLP
4611	Maple City Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.3%	69.9	D	NY	Hornell	114	—
4612	SHENANGO PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.3%	69.9	A	PA	NEW WILMINGTON	32	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
4613	ROSEBUD VILLAGE	0.3%	69.9	A	IN	RICHMOND	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4614	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING ROARING RIVER	0.3%	69.9	C	MO	CASSVILLE	90	—
4615	Chelsea Gardens	0.3%	69.9	B	TX	Missouri City	0	—
4616	DUBLINAIR HEALTH & REHAB	0.3%	69.9	B	GA	DUBLIN	149	—
4617	STONEBROOKE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	IN	NEW CASTLE	117	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4618	Carondelet Village Care Center	0.3%	69.9	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	45	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4619	King Manor Care and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.9	D	NJ	NEPTUNE	120	—
4620	SAN FRANCISCO HEALTH CARE	0.3%	69.9	C	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	168	—
4621	Riverview Health & Rehab Center	0.3%	69.9	B	MI	Detroit	203	—
4622	WELLPARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	69.9	C	TN	KNOXVILLE	32	—
4623	ST ROSE HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	69.9	—	CA	HAYWARD	—	HAYWARD SISTERS HOSPITAL
4624	Arbor Acres United Methodist Retirement Community	0.3%	69.5	A	NC	Winston Salem	6	—
4625	OAKWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	69.5	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	148	—
4626	MILFORD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	D	PA	MILFORD	80	—
4627	BIG BEND WOODS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	D	MO	VALLEY PARK	135	—
4628	Harrison Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.5	C	KY	Cynthiana	54	—
4629	LEGACY POST ACUTE CARE	0.3%	69.5	A	CA	MARTINEZ	96	—
4630	RIVERSIDE VILLAGE	0.3%	69.5	A	IN	ELKHART	97	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4631	Veteran Village	0.3%	69.5	A	SC	Florence	52	STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMPTROLLER GENERAL
4632	SOUTH PENINSULA HOSPITAL LTC	0.3%	69.5	A	AK	HOMER	28	SOUTH PENINSULA HOSPITAL INC
4633	BERRY HILL NURSING HOME	0.3%	69.5	B	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
4634	COMMUNITY CONVALESCENT CENTER OF SAN BERNARDINO	0.3%	69.5	A	CA	SAN BERNARDINO	84	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
4635	Asbury Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.5	A	NC	Charlotte	120	—
4636	Heritage House	0.3%	69.5	A	IA	Atlantic	61	WESLEYLIFE
4637	FOREST MANOR HCC	0.3%	69.5	D	NJ	BLAIRSTOWN	120	—
4638	GAINESVILLE NURSING	0.3%	69.5	B	MO	GAINESVILLE	99	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
4639	SPRAIN BROOK MANOR REHAB	0.3%	69.5	A	NY	SCARSDALE	121	—
4640	Vernon Green Nursing Home	0.3%	69.5	B	VT	Vernon	60	—
4641	Santa Fe Care Center	0.3%	69.5	C	NM	Santa Fe	120	COMPASSION CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4642	Cypress Springs Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.3%	69.5	D	TX	MOUNT VERNON	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4643	SALEM CROSSING	0.3%	69.5	A	IN	SALEM	92	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4644	FOREST HILLS CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	B	NY	FOREST HILLS	100	—
4645	PIONEER SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.3%	69.5	B	MO	MARCELINE	96	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
4646	PRAIRIEVIEW LUTHERAN HOME	0.3%	69.5	B	IL	DANFORTH	90	—
4647	REHABILITATION CENTER AT HARTSFIELD VILLAGE	0.3%	69.5	A	IN	MUNSTER	112	COMMUNITY FOUNDATION OF NORTHWEST INDIANA INC
4648	Dawson Springs Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.5	A	KY	Dawson Springs	59	JAMES LOWRY FAMILY IRRV TR
4649	Alameda Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.3%	69.5	A	NJ	PERTH AMBOY	250	—
4650	WILLOW PARK REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	D	TX	WILLOW PARK	0	PARKER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 4,601–4,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.