Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,501–6,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6501	SUTTON PARK CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	57.2	B	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	160	—
6502	BETHANY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING LLC	0.1%	57.2	A	TN	NASHVILLE	180	—
6503	Brookestone Gardens	0.1%	57.2	C	NE	Kearney	54	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
6504	The Center At Val Vista, Llc	0.1%	57.2	A	AZ	GILBERT	96	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
6505	PLAINFIELD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	F	IN	PLAINFIELD	189	—
6506	AVANTE AT ORMOND BEACH, INC	0.1%	57.2	B	FL	ORMOND BEACH	133	AG HOLDINGS INC
6507	ARDIE R COPAS STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.1%	57.2	C	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
6508	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MARY JANE BROWN	0.1%	57.2	C	MN	LUVERNE	51	SANFORD
6509	LOUISIANA WAR VETERANS HOME	0.1%	57.2	D	LA	JACKSON	10	STATE OF LA DEPT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
6510	West Shore Post Acute	0.1%	57.2	B	CA	ALAMEDA	151	SAINT CABRINI HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
6511	AYDEN HEALTHCARE OF PIQUA	0.1%	57.2	C	OH	PIQUA	99	BUCKEYE FAMILY TRUST
6512	BAYSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	FL	PENSACOLA	120	—
6513	MOSHOLU PARKWAY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	NY	BRONX	122	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
6514	Willowdale Health Services	0.1%	57.2	A	WI	New Holstein	49	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
6515	HERITAGE HALL KING GEORGE	0.1%	57.2	C	VA	KING GEORGE	130	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
6516	SOUTHGATE LIVING CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	MO	CARUTHERSVILLE	94	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6517	SAVANNAH NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	57.2	B	TN	SAVANNAH	120	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
6518	POMONA VISTA CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	CA	POMONA	59	—
6519	Bayberry Commons	0.1%	57.2	B	RI	Pascoag	110	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
6520	Columbus Oaks Healthcare Community	0.1%	57.2	C	TX	Columbus	0	SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6521	LOFT REHABILITATION & NURSING	0.1%	57.2	F	IL	EUREKA	92	—
6522	CRENSHAW NURSING HOME	0.1%	57.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	55	—
6523	Peak Resources - Charlotte	0.1%	57.2	C	NC	Charlotte	142	PEAK RESOURCES INC
6524	LOVELAND CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	LOVELAND	89	CENTRAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS INC
6525	CHERRY HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	117	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
6526	MAPLE HEALTHCARE AND REHAB	0.1%	57.2	A	OK	FAIRLAND	29	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
6527	MADISON PARK HEALTHCARE	0.1%	57.2	A	WV	HUNTINGTON	41	—
6528	TITUSVILLE REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	57.2	F	FL	TITUSVILLE	157	—
6529	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - EASTVIEW	0.1%	57.2	D	MT	GREAT FALLS	64	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
6530	The Orchards at Southgate	0.1%	57.2	B	MI	Southgate	100	—
6531	CLOVERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	AL	SCOTTSBORO	141	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
6532	Aspire of Pleasant Valley	0.1%	57.2	C	IA	Pleasant Valley	44	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
6533	Edenbrook of Green Bay	0.1%	57.2	C	WI	Green Bay	90	—
6534	BELPRE LANDING NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	BELPRE	62	—
6535	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.1%	57.2	C	IN	PLYMOUTH	131	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6536	IMPERIAL CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	NJ	NEPTUNE	121	—
6537	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ELLIS	0.1%	57.2	B	KS	ELLIS	42	SANFORD
6538	GWYNEDD HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	PA	LANSDALE	181	—
6539	CAMELLIA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	AL	MOBILE	170	GNH IRRV TR
6540	SHADY OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	D	MO	THAYER	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6541	BROOKSIDE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	PA	ROSLYN	120	—
6542	MEADOWBROOK MANOR - LAGRANGE	0.1%	57.2	D	IL	LA GRANGE	197	CHRIS VANGEL GST EXEMPT DESCENDANTS TRUST
6543	SCHULMAN AND SCHACHNE INST FOR NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	57.2	C	NY	BROOKLYN	448	ONE BROOKLYN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
6544	Roberts Health Centre Inc	0.1%	57.2	A	RI	North Kingstown	66	—
6545	WHISPERING SPRINGS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE C	0.1%	57.2	A	TX	CARRIZO SPRINGS	0	NEXION HEALTH INC
6546	AVALON BY OTTERBEIN AT PERRYSBURG	0.1%	57.2	A	OH	PERRYSBURG	60	—
6547	Maine Veterans Home - Bangor	0.1%	57.2	C	ME	BANGOR	120	MAINE VETERANS HOME
6548	NORTH CENTRAL CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	WA	SPOKANE	99	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
6549	THE BLOSSOMS AT HOT SPRINGS REHAB AND NURSING CENT	0.1%	57.2	C	AR	HOT SPRINGS	152	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
6550	LEMAY NURSING	0.1%	57.2	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	60	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 6,501–6,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.