Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,751–6,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6751	HIGH HOPE CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	LA	SULPHUR	101	—
6752	The Lev at Winchester	0.1%	54.9	B	TX	ALVIN	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
6753	The Graybrier Nursing and Retirement Center	0.1%	54.9	A	NC	Trinity	128	CANYON MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS INC
6754	Grand Oaks Nursing Center	0.1%	54.9	A	MI	Baldwin	79	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
6755	Arbor Village	0.1%	54.9	C	OK	Sapulpa	142	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
6756	FAMILY OF CARING HEALTHCARE AT TENAFLY, LLC	0.1%	54.9	B	NJ	TENAFLY	69	—
6757	SUNNYSIDE MANOR	0.1%	54.9	A	NJ	WALL	60	—
6758	Vivo Healthcare Meadows	0.1%	54.9	B	FL	SARASOTA	120	ENSH CONSULTING LLC
6759	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE COCONUT CREEK	0.1%	54.9	B	FL	COCONUT CREEK	120	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
6760	CLYDE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	TX	CLYDE	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
6761	DIVINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT CANAL POINTE	0.1%	54.9	A	OH	AKRON	120	—
6762	Sanford Health & Rehabilitation Co	0.1%	54.9	D	NC	Sanford	131	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
6763	LIMESTONE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	0.1%	54.9	A	AL	ATHENS	170	PRESTON HEALTH SERVICES INC
6764	VILLA AT STAMFORD, THE	0.1%	54.9	B	CT	STAMFORD	128	—
6765	ALDEN NORTH SHORE REHAB & HCC	0.1%	54.9	D	IL	SKOKIE	93	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6766	EAST HAVEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	BRONX	200	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
6767	THE BRIGHTPOINTE	0.1%	54.9	C	TX	CONROE	0	KCCJ1 HOLDINGS LLC
6768	Retreat at Wellmore of Lexington	0.1%	54.9	C	SC	Lexington	60	MAXWELL GROUP INC
6769	INDIAN BEACH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	FL	SARASOTA	101	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
6770	AHVA CARE OF STICKNEY	0.1%	54.9	A	IL	STICKNEY	51	AHVA SOUTHWEST HOLDCO LLC
6771	Orchard Park Rehab & Living Center	0.1%	54.9	B	ME	Farmington	38	—
6772	MILLER'S AT OAK POINTE	0.1%	54.9	A	IN	COLUMBIA CITY	82	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6773	BRIA OF CHICAGO HEIGHTS	0.1%	54.9	C	IL	SOUTH CHICAGO HEIGHT	112	—
6774	ALTERCARE OF LOUISVILLE CTR FOR REHAB & NSG CARE	0.1%	54.9	C	OH	LOUISVILLE	90	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
6775	CONEMAUGH MEMORIAL MEDICAL CENTER TCU	0.1%	54.9	B	PA	JOHNSTOWN	30	LIFEPOINT HEALTH INC
6776	TERRACE AT SOLARBRON THE	0.1%	54.9	F	IN	EVANSVILLE	91	CARDON AND ASSOCIATES INC
6777	WEST BEND NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	54.9	B	IN	SOUTH BEND	157	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6778	WILLOW REHAB & NURSING	0.1%	54.9	F	TX	KILGORE	0	—
6779	GOOD SAMARITAN HEALTH CARE CTR	0.1%	54.9	B	WA	YAKIMA	105	—
6780	PROVIDENCE VALDEZ MEDICAL CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	AK	VALDEZ	10	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
6781	PARADIGM AT THE BRAZOS	0.1%	54.9	A	TX	RICHMOND	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
6782	RICHBORO REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	PA	RICHBORO	82	GOLD PA TRUST
6783	SKYE CANYON POST ACUTE	0.1%	54.9	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	45	—
6784	WATERS OF WAKARUSA SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.1%	54.9	C	IN	WAKARUSA	133	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6785	PruittHealth - Lithonia, LLC	0.1%	54.9	B	GA	LITHONIA	150	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6786	SARDIS COMMUNITY NH	0.1%	54.9	A	MS	SARDIS	60	—
6787	HIGHLAND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	53	—
6788	GOLD CREST CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	BRONX	175	LUBA SCHULSINGER ESTATE
6789	MEADOWBROOK AT CHETEK	0.1%	54.9	D	WI	CHETEK	97	—
6790	SALAMANCA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	SALAMANCA	120	—
6791	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GRAY	0.1%	54.9	D	TN	GRAY	133	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
6792	NORTHCREST REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	OH	NAPOLEON	87	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
6793	HARRISON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	IN	CORYDON	92	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6794	GREENFIELD SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	54.9	B	OH	GREENFIELD	50	—
6795	FAIRFIELD SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC	0.1%	54.9	D	IL	FAIRFIELD	104	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
6796	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - CHURCHMAN CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	115	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
6797	MEADOWBROOK AT BLACK RIVER FALLS	0.1%	54.9	C	WI	BLACK RIVER FALLS	45	—
6798	BARTRAM CROSSING	0.1%	54.9	D	FL	JACKSONVILLE	100	GENESIS HEALTH INC
6799	MEDICALODGES EUDORA	0.1%	54.9	C	KS	EUDORA	65	MEDICALODGES INC
6800	Royal Cape Cod Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	54.9	C	MA	BUZZARDS BAY	99	—

Showing 6,751–6,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.