Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

701–750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
701	HIGHER CALL NURSING CENTER	7.9%	95.9	C	OK	QUAPAW	86	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
702	HALLMARK NURSING CENTER	7.9%	95.9	C	CO	DENVER	143	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
703	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CROSSVILLE	7.9%	95.9	B	TN	CROSSVILLE	122	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
704	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - ELKHART CARE CENTER	7.9%	95.8	D	IN	ELKHART	175	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
705	STILLWATER CREEK SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	7.9%	95.8	B	OK	STILLWATER	112	BRIDGES ESOP INC
706	GARDENS AT ORANGEVILLE, THE	7.9%	95.8	D	PA	ORANGEVILLE	119	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
707	CASA OF HOBART	7.9%	95.8	D	IN	HOBART	138	MAJOR HOSPITAL
708	ROLLING HILLS HEALTH CENTER	7.9%	95.8	C	KS	TOPEKA	70	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
709	Springfield Health & Rehab	7.9%	95.8	C	VT	Springfield	102	—
710	SABETHA MANOR	7.9%	95.8	B	KS	SABETHA	40	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
711	Life Care Center of Farmington	7.9%	95.8	B	NM	Farmington	144	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
712	DIVERSICARE OF MARTIN	7.9%	95.8	A	TN	MARTIN	150	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
713	KELLER LANDING	7.9%	95.8	B	AL	TUSCUMBIA	109	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
714	HIRAM SHADDOX HEALTH AND REHAB	7.9%	95.8	C	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	140	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
715	SUNNY ACRES NURSING HOME	7.9%	95.8	D	IL	PETERSBURG	99	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
716	Clinton Therapy & Living Center	7.9%	95.7	D	OK	Clinton	101	—
717	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ERIN	7.9%	95.7	D	TN	ERIN	164	WHEATEN LLC
718	FORUM PARKWAY HEALTH & REHABILITATION	7.9%	95.7	C	TX	BEDFORD	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
719	Park Place Care Center	7.9%	95.7	D	TX	Georgetown	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
720	FOUR SEASONS LIVING CENTER	7.9%	95.7	B	MO	SEDALIA	239	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
721	EVERGREEN NURSING HOME	7.9%	95.7	B	CO	ALAMOSA	60	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
722	NHC HEALTHCARE, WEST PLAINS	7.9%	95.7	B	MO	WEST PLAINS	114	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
723	ARISTA HEALTHCARE	7.9%	95.7	C	IL	NAPERVILLE	153	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
724	Legacy Rehabilitation and Living	7.9%	95.7	A	TX	Amarillo	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
725	MILL RUN CARE CENTER	7.9%	95.7	C	OH	HILLIARD	66	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
726	THIRD AVENUE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	7.8%	95.7	C	PA	KINGSTON	65	BNV DYNASTY LLC
727	Avir at Converse	7.8%	95.7	C	TX	CONVERSE	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
728	Legend Oaks Healthcare and Rehabilitation - Fort W	7.8%	95.7	C	TX	Keller	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
729	Arbor Glen Center	7.8%	95.7	C	NJ	CEDAR GROVE	122	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
730	LIFE CARE CTR OF LAWRENCEVILLE	7.8%	95.7	C	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	125	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
731	ST JOHNS PLACE	7.8%	95.7	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	94	—
732	ASBURY PLACE KINGSPORT	7.8%	95.7	D	TN	KINGSPORT	67	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
733	ALLISON POINTE HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.8%	95.7	F	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	159	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
734	Aria at Villa Pines	7.8%	95.7	D	WI	Friendship	50	EEF CAPITAL LLC
735	PARK AVENUE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	7.8%	95.7	B	AZ	TUCSON	200	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
736	WATERS OF SYRACUSE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	7.8%	95.7	C	IN	SYRACUSE	66	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
737	MARQUIS SPRINGFIELD	7.8%	95.6	C	OR	SPRINGFIELD	136	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
738	River's Edge Rehabilitation & Living Center	7.8%	95.6	C	ID	Emmett	74	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
739	Parkview Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	7.8%	95.6	B	KY	Paducah	228	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
740	MEDICALODGES BUTLER	7.8%	95.6	B	MO	BUTLER	105	MEDICALODGES INC
741	MILLVILLE CENTER	7.8%	95.6	C	NJ	MILLVILLE	167	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
742	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF CLACKAMAS	7.8%	95.6	B	OR	GLADSTONE	87	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
743	Chisolm Trail Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	7.8%	95.6	C	TX	Lockhart	0	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
744	LONGMEADOW CARE CENTER	7.8%	95.6	B	OH	RAVENNA	99	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
745	Regency at Fremont	7.8%	95.6	C	MI	Fremont	129	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
746	Coeur d Alene Health of Cascadia	7.8%	95.6	C	ID	Coeur d'Alene	117	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
747	COUNTRY VILLAGE CENTER, GENESIS HEALTHCARE	7.8%	95.6	B	NH	LANCASTER	86	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
748	Le Reve Rehabilitation & Memory Care	7.8%	95.6	F	TX	Dallas	108	—
749	Woodland Springs Nursing Center	7.8%	95.6	F	TX	Waco	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
750	WATERS OF CLIFTY FALLS, THE	7.8%	95.6	C	IN	MADISON	138	MAJOR HOSPITAL

Showing 701–750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.