Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,001–7,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7001	WESTHAMPTON CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	NY	WESTHAMPTON	180	—
7002	Farmerville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	0.1%	53.5	C	LA	Farmerville	117	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7003	Rutland Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	B	VT	Rutland	103	ALLAIRE HEALTH SERVICES
7004	PLATINUM RIDGE CTR FOR REHAB & HEALING	0.1%	53.5	B	PA	BRACKENRIDGE	97	—
7005	CARDINAL WOODS SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CTR	0.1%	53.5	F	OH	MADISON	120	POINTE WOODS INVESTMENT LLC
7006	ROSEWOOD HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	PENSACOLA	155	—
7007	Elderwood at Hamburg	0.1%	53.5	C	NY	HAMBURG	166	—
7008	Riverside Healthcare Center	0.1%	53.5	B	MI	St. Louis	39	—
7009	BLUE PALMS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF DAY	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	DAYTONA BEACH	100	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
7010	Maple Manor Rehab Center of Novi Inc	0.1%	53.5	A	MI	Novi	72	—
7011	Greenup Rehab and Nursing	0.1%	53.5	B	IL	GREENUP	54	XCH LLC
7012	CLIFTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	OH	CINCINNATI	142	I ROSEDALE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7013	Good Samaritan - George	0.1%	53.5	D	IA	George	36	SANFORD
7014	Grand Avenue Rest Home	0.1%	53.5	D	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	20	—
7015	Aidan Senior Living at Reedsport	0.1%	53.5	A	OR	REEDSPORT	29	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
7016	ANAHEIM HEALTHCARE CENTER, LLC	0.1%	53.5	B	CA	ANAHEIM	250	—
7017	Pines Rehab & Health Center	0.1%	53.5	A	VT	Lyndonville	60	FRANCIS E CHENEY JR ESTATE
7018	ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN	0.1%	53.5	B	GA	MILLEDGEVILLE	15	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
7019	PIKEVILLE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	KY	Pikeville	106	WELLSKY CORPORATION
7020	BLUE SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	D	MO	BLUE SPRINGS	120	DERHOBEN TRUST
7021	CAPITOL HILL SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.1%	53.5	D	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	120	BRIDGES ESOP INC
7022	PENINSULA MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.1%	53.5	—	CA	BURLINGAME	—	SUTTER BAY HOSPITALS
7023	Jolley Acres Healthcare Center	0.1%	53.5	A	SC	Orangeburg	60	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
7024	SENECA NURSING	0.1%	53.5	B	MO	SENECA	80	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
7025	LAUREL MANOR HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	NJ	STRATFORD	106	—
7026	LINDA MAR CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	CA	PACIFICA	59	NAHS HOLDING INC
7027	LUTHERAN NURSING HOME	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	CONCORDIA	113	—
7028	THE SPRINGS BROADWAY	0.1%	53.5	C	AR	WEST MEMPHIS	119	WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
7029	LEXINGTON MANOR SENIOR CARE, LLC	0.1%	53.5	A	MS	LEXINGTON	60	TILLMAN SENIOR CARE LLC
7030	LEISURE CHATEAU REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	C	NJ	LAKEWOOD	242	—
7031	CONTINUING CARE AT MARIS GROVE	0.1%	53.5	B	PA	GLEN MILLS	66	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7032	SKYLINE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	DALLAS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7033	NASHVILLE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING LL	0.1%	53.5	B	TN	NASHVILLE	142	—
7034	ASPIRE AT RIDGE HAVEN	0.1%	53.5	C	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	120	ASP FL LLC
7035	VILLAGE OF THE FALLS	0.1%	53.5	F	OH	OLMSTED FALLS	36	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7036	BRIAN CENTER OF ALLEGHANY	0.1%	53.5	A	VA	LOW MOOR	89	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
7037	LAKESIDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7038	FOURAKER HILLS REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
7039	San Luis Post Acute Center	0.1%	53.5	B	CA	San Luis Obispo	162	COMPASS HEALTH INC
7040	SUSQUEHANNA HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	PA	COLUMBIA	173	—
7041	SEVEN ACRES SENIOR LIVING AT CLIFTON	0.1%	53.5	A	OH	CINCINNATI	58	LACKAWANNA HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATES LLC
7042	Ridgeland Nursing Center Inc	0.1%	53.5	B	SC	Ridgeland	88	SHORE HEALTH MANAGEMENT TRUST
7043	Green Country Care Center	0.1%	53.5	B	OK	Tulsa	114	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
7044	HOLLAND CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	53.5	F	PA	HOLLAND	66	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
7045	BALDWIN GARDENS NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	CA	TEMPLE CITY	59	HELENE MAYER 2007 IRREVOCABLE EXEMPT TRUST FBO ABRAHAM MAYER DATED DEC
7046	SUNTERRA SPRINGS SPRINGFIELD	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	38	BALL VENTURES LLC
7047	CLEARVIEW NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	SIKESTON	90	—
7048	Ennoble Nursing and Rehab	0.1%	53.5	B	IA	Dubuque	85	STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
7049	THE BLOSSOMS AT ROGERS REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	AR	ROGERS	110	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
7050	Community Care Center	0.1%	53.5	A	IA	Stuart	65	—

Showing 7,001–7,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.