Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,051–7,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7051	PARK AVENUE HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	MA	ARLINGTON	89	—
7052	ALLURE OF WALNUT	0.1%	53.5	C	IL	WALNUT	62	MN1 MANAGEMENT CORP
7053	CRESCENT CARE OF ELGIN	0.1%	53.5	C	IL	ELGIN	88	—
7054	Birchwood Terrace Rehab & Healthcare	0.1%	53.5	B	VT	Burlington	160	—
7055	STAUNTON HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	0.1%	53.5	C	IL	STAUNTON	90	LIGHT MAN LLC
7056	Maple Heights	0.1%	53.5	A	IA	Mapleton	58	MAPLETON PROGRESS INC
7057	POINT LOOKOUT NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	HOLLISTER	130	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7058	Andrew Residence	0.1%	53.5	C	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	212	—
7059	GREEN VILLAGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION LTD	0.1%	53.5	C	OH	AKRON	69	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
7060	PARK GARDENS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER L L C	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	RIVERDALE	200	—
7061	Heritage Park Healthcare and Rehabilitation	0.1%	53.5	B	UT	Roy	176	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7062	Big Elm Retirement and Nursing Centers	0.1%	53.5	A	NC	Kannapolis	50	—
7063	BAY AREA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	CA	OAKLAND	99	—
7064	THE ROWLAND	0.1%	53.5	C	CA	COVINA	126	—
7065	CROWN REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	MO	HARRISONVILLE	118	AMA HOLDINGS LLC
7066	WELLSVILLE MANOR	0.1%	53.5	A	KS	WELLSVILLE	51	JOYA LIVING & HEALTHCARE INC
7067	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY INVER GROVE HEIGHTS	0.1%	53.5	C	MN	INVER GROVE HEIGHTS	46	SANFORD
7068	Azria Health Longview	0.1%	53.5	B	IA	Missouri Valley	100	AZRIA VENTURES LLC
7069	Pillar of Cedar Valley	0.1%	53.5	A	IA	Waterloo	114	—
7070	MAJESTIC CARE OF MIDDLETOWN LLC	0.1%	53.5	C	OH	MIDDLETOWN	200	MAJESTIC MANAGEMENT LLC
7071	Drumright Nursing Home	0.1%	53.5	D	OK	Drumright	133	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
7072	WILLOW CREEK POST ACUTE	0.1%	53.5	A	OR	MADRAS	20	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
7073	RANCHO REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	FLORISSANT	120	AMA HOLDINGS LLC
7074	Fulton Nursing and Rehabilitation, LLC	0.1%	53.5	A	KY	Fulton	60	CLEARVIEW HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT KY LLC
7075	MERCYCARE MERCY GENERAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.1%	53.5	—	CA	SACRAMENTO	—	DIGNITY HEALTH
7076	AristaCare at Manchester	0.1%	53.5	C	NJ	MANCHESTER	165	—
7077	MEDICALODGES FRONTENAC	0.1%	53.5	C	KS	FRONTENAC	55	MEDICALODGES INC
7078	ELMHURST HEALTHCARE (THE)	0.1%	53.5	B	MA	MELROSE	45	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
7079	Balch Springs Nursing Home	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	Balch Springs	0	—
7080	Northcrest Specialty Care	0.1%	53.5	C	IA	Waterloo	94	CARE INITIATIVES
7081	Elcor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	Horseheads	305	—
7082	Songbird Lodge	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	Brownwood	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7083	MASON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	IN	WARSAW	105	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7084	HERITAGE PARK CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	CO	CARBONDALE	90	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7085	NORTHERN DAUPHIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	PA	MILLERSBURG	194	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
7086	THE SPRINGS OF CHENAL	0.1%	53.5	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	70	BLUE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
7087	THE CROSSING AT RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATIO	0.1%	53.5	A	AR	SEARCY	138	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7088	BAYONNE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL	0.1%	53.5	A	NJ	BAYONNE	17	—
7089	Southlake Village Rehabilitation & Care Center	0.1%	53.5	A	NE	Lincoln	126	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7090	VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER, THE	0.1%	53.5	C	CO	MANCOS	110	CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
7091	WHISPERING PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	CT	EAST HAVEN	90	—
7092	Avir at Mansfield	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	MANSFIELD	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7093	WILLIAMSPORT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	MD	WILLIAMSPORT	121	—
7094	ROSEWOOD HEALTH FACILITY	0.1%	53.5	C	CA	BAKERSFIELD	79	HUMANGOOD
7095	THE ENCLAVE AT RYE REHAB AND NURSING CTR	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	PORT CHESTER	160	—
7096	MILCREST NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	OH	MARYSVILLE	50	—
7097	RIVERDELL CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	MO	BOONVILLE	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7098	DEL AMO GARDENS CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	CA	TORRANCE	94	—
7099	Good Samaritan Ambassador	0.1%	53.5	A	MN	NEW HOPE	77	SANFORD
7100	WOODLAKE AT TOLLAND	0.1%	53.5	A	CT	TOLLAND	130	—

Showing 7,051–7,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.