Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,001–8,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8001	COPLEY AT STOUGHTON NURSING CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	MA	STOUGHTON	123	—
8002	Phoenix Center for Rehabilitation and Pediatrics	0.1%	47.1	B	NJ	HASKELL	227	—
8003	Accura Healthcare of Fullerton	0.1%	47.1	B	NE	Fullerton	75	ARBOR CARE CENTERS LLC
8004	Kingston Health Center of Vermilion	0.1%	47.1	C	OH	VERMILION	120	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
8005	STONEBRIDGE FLORISSANT	0.1%	47.1	B	MO	FLORISSANT	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
8006	Heartland Living & Rehab at the Moses H Cone Memor	0.1%	47.1	B	NC	Greensboro	107	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
8007	Pueblo Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	47.1	F	CO	PUEBLO	120	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
8008	GRAND BOULEVARD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	FL	MIRAMAR BEACH	97	ZBL PANHANDLE 7 LLC
8009	ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	MO	FERGUSON	150	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
8010	HAWTHORNE CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALING OF SARASOTA	0.1%	47.1	B	FL	SARASOTA	120	HAWTHORNE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8011	PRAIRIE VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CTR	0.1%	47.1	C	IL	JACKSONVILLE	126	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
8012	The Carrolton of Williamston	0.1%	47.1	D	NC	Williamston	154	CARROLTON FACILITY MANAGEMENT LLC
8013	Avina on Division	0.1%	47.1	B	WI	Fond du Lac	50	—
8014	Azria Health Clarinda	0.1%	47.1	D	IA	Clarinda	70	BCP IOWA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
8015	SAINT JOHN PAUL II CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	CT	DANBURY	141	—
8016	AVON OAKS NURSING HOME	0.1%	47.1	A	OH	AVON	99	—
8017	GREEN MEADOWS SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	LOUISVILLE	110	FEJCC TRUST
8018	HALE OLA KINO BY ARCADIA	0.1%	47.1	A	HI	HON	32	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
8019	WOODSIDE VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	MOUNT GILEAD	75	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
8020	CENTURY VILLA, INC	0.1%	47.1	A	CA	INGLEWOOD	99	—
8021	RICHLAND NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	47.1	F	IL	OLNEY	157	—
8022	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF ISSAQUAH	0.1%	47.1	D	WA	ISSAQUAH	140	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
8023	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT LONG RIDGE	0.1%	47.1	A	CT	STAMFORD	120	ESNH LLC
8024	WINDCREST HEALTH AND REHAB INC	0.1%	47.1	B	AR	SPRINGDALE	70	RHC OPERATIONS INC
8025	WESTCHESTER VILLAGE OF LENEXA	0.1%	47.1	A	KS	LENEXA	34	WSG LLC
8026	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BRENTWOOD CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	114	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8027	Hoyt Nursing & Rehab Centre	0.1%	47.1	C	MI	Saginaw	128	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
8028	Haymount Rehabilitation & Nursing Center, Inc.	0.1%	47.1	A	NC	Fayetteville	98	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
8029	Arbor Springs of West Des Moines L L C	0.1%	47.1	A	IA	West Des Moines	56	—
8030	Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Nursing Center at	0.1%	47.1	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	142	—
8031	ROGERS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	AR	ROGERS	118	JEJ ASSETS LP
8032	BRIARCLIFF HEALTH CENTER OF GREENVILLE	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	GREENVILLE	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8033	COUNTRY POINTE	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	WOOSTER	42	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
8034	CASA DE LAS CAMPANAS	0.1%	47.1	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	99	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
8035	CORE OF DALE	0.1%	47.1	F	IN	DALE	52	MAJOR HOSPITAL
8036	Avir at Lancaster	0.1%	47.1	D	TX	Lancaster	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8037	Ashford Gardens	0.1%	47.1	D	TX	Houston	0	SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8038	Kingston Health Center of Perrysburg	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	PERRYSBURG	62	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
8039	AVIR AT DRIPPING SPRINGS	0.1%	47.1	A	TX	DRIPPING SPRINGS	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8040	STANDING STONE CARE AND REHAB	0.1%	47.1	B	TN	MONTEREY	115	WHEATEN LLC
8041	AVANTE AT INVERNESS INC	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	INVERNESS	104	AG HOLDINGS INC
8042	Flanagan Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	0.1%	47.1	C	IL	FLANAGAN	43	XCH LLC
8043	The Shores Of Worthington	0.1%	47.1	F	MN	WORTHINGTON	69	—
8044	CHASE CITY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	VA	CHASE CITY	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
8045	VIERRA FALLS CHURCH	0.1%	47.1	D	VA	FALLS CHURCH	160	VIERRA COMMUNITIES LLC
8046	Skilled Care of Mexia	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	Mexia	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8047	Arbor Care Center-Valhaven, LLC	0.1%	47.1	B	NE	Valley	66	—
8048	BURLINGTON HOUSE REHAB & ALZHEIMER'S CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	OH	CINCINNATI	122	MINORITY REPORT LLC
8049	CareOne at New Milford	0.1%	47.1	F	NJ	NEW MILFORD	236	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
8050	ELDERWOOD AT WAVERLY	0.1%	47.1	D	NY	WAVERLY	200	—

Showing 8,001–8,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.