Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,401–8,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8401	NORWAY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	44.6	B	ME	NORWAY	42	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
8402	RENAISSANCE MANOR ON CABOT	0.1%	44.6	C	MA	HOLYOKE	61	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
8403	Camelot Leisure Living	0.1%	44.6	D	LA	Ferriday	91	JOE KENNETH NEWTON JR QSST TRUST
8404	Orem Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.1%	44.6	B	UT	Orem	120	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
8405	CASHMERE POST ACUTE	0.1%	44.6	A	WA	CASHMERE	95	POWERBACK REHABILITATION LLC
8406	Maple Grove Senior Living LLC	0.1%	44.6	C	KY	Shelbyville	90	ECC TRUST
8407	THE PAVILION AT CREEKWOOD	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	MANSFIELD	0	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
8408	Bangor Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	ME	BANGOR	60	—
8409	Tweeten Lutheran Health Care Center	0.1%	44.6	B	MN	SPRING GROVE	49	BELLIN GUNDERSEN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
8410	HILLVIEW TERRACE	0.1%	44.6	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	143	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
8411	CLOVER MEADOWS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTE	0.1%	44.6	B	NJ	LAWRENCEVILLE	100	JOES BEACH LLC
8412	TEN BROECK COMMONS	0.1%	44.6	A	NY	LAKE KATRINE	258	—
8413	FARMERSVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	D	TX	FARMERSVILLE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8414	GALAX HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	C	VA	GALAX	120	TRIO HEALTHCARE LLC
8415	BEARDSTOWN HEALTH & REHAB CTR	0.1%	44.6	A	IL	BEARDSTOWN	79	LIGHT MAN LLC
8416	PICKERSGILL RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.1%	44.6	A	MD	TOWSON	43	—
8417	CLARA MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	44.6	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	90	—
8418	Cedar Creek Post Acute	0.1%	44.6	B	TN	MOUNT JULIET	106	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
8419	SILVER OAKS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	A	AR	CAMDEN	104	RHC OPERATIONS INC
8420	Valley Hill Health & Rehab Center	0.1%	44.6	D	NC	Hendersonville	150	BNV DYNASTY LLC
8421	Stokes County Nursing Home	0.1%	44.6	A	NC	Danbury	40	—
8422	LIFE CARE CENTER OF KONA	0.1%	44.6	C	HI	KAILUA KONA	94	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8423	Crystal Bluffs Rehabilitation and Health Care Cent	0.1%	44.6	A	NC	Morehead City	92	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
8424	Reserve at Appling of Journey LLC, The	0.1%	44.6	A	GA	APPLING	100	—
8425	LAURELWOOD COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	MS	LAUREL	60	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
8426	SENIOR VILLAGE HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	B	OK	BLANCHARD	50	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8427	PALM GARDENS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
8428	HEARTLAND REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	AR	BENTON	140	JEJ ASSETS LP
8429	Calera Manor	0.1%	44.6	A	OK	Calera	82	BGM ESTATE LLC
8430	NORTH RIVER HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	44.6	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	58	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
8431	Lexington Country Place	0.1%	44.6	A	KY	Lexington	111	SNH TRS INC
8432	RIDGEVIEW TERRACE OF LIFE CARE	0.1%	44.6	A	TN	RUTLEDGE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8433	VIVO HEALTHCARE GATEWAY	0.1%	44.6	C	FL	PINELLAS PARK	120	TAMPA 5 FL HOLDCO LLC
8434	DELMAR GARDENS OF O'FALLON	0.1%	44.6	B	MO	O FALLON	198	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
8435	ARISTOCRAT BEREA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	BEREA	165	EXTENDED OHIO LLC
8436	DERBY HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	44.6	A	KS	DERBY	74	AXIOM CONSULTING LLC
8437	RENAISSANCE CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	GAINESVILLE	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8438	CALEB HITCHCOCK HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	CT	BLOOMFIELD	60	—
8439	POPLAR SPRINGS NURSING CTR, LLC	0.1%	44.6	A	MS	MERIDIAN	89	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
8440	GABLES CARE CENTER INC	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	HOPEDALE	86	CAPITAL HEALTH SERVICES INC
8441	Avir at Burleson	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	BURLESON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8442	DUBLIN TRAILS OF JOURNEY LLC	0.1%	44.6	C	GA	DUBLIN	105	AJOJ HOLDINGS LLC
8443	Honorage Nursing Center	0.1%	44.6	B	SC	Florence	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
8444	ANDOVER FOREST POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	MA	NORTH ANDOVER	142	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
8445	The Parks at Garland Healthcare and Rehab	0.1%	44.6	D	TX	Garland	0	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
8446	ROYAL OAKS MANOR-BRADBURY OAKS	0.1%	44.6	B	CA	DUARTE	48	HUMANGOOD
8447	Croasdaile Village	0.1%	44.6	A	NC	Durham	102	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8448	MARQUIS CARE AT CENTENNIAL HILLS	0.1%	44.6	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	120	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
8449	Hilltop Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	44.6	C	NC	Rutherfordton	80	PISGAH HOLDCO LLC
8450	SAVOY AT FORT LAUDERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSIN	0.1%	44.6	C	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	116	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST

Showing 8,401–8,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.