Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,451–8,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8451	CREEKSIDE TERRACE REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	BELTON	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8452	BIRMINGHAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER EAST	0.1%	44.6	C	AL	BIRMINGHAM	132	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
8453	GUADALUPE VALLEY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	SEGUIN	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8454	Kenwood Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	KY	Richmond	93	GGKY OPCO LLC
8455	ABINGDON HEALTH CARE LLC	0.1%	44.6	B	VA	ABINGDON	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
8456	SPRING VIEW MANOR HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	KS	CONWAY SPRINGS	45	—
8457	Scotland Manor Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	NC	Scotland Neck	62	AUGUSTNC HOLDCO LLC
8458	BEDFORD HILLS CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	NH	BEDFORD	147	603 HEALTHCARE LLC
8459	HAMILTON POINTE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	B	IN	NEWBURGH	115	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
8460	SCENIC WELLNESS AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	MO	HERCULANEUM	189	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
8461	JUNIPER VILLAGE - THE SPEARLY CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	CO	DENVER	135	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
8462	HERITAGE HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	B	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	127	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8463	MADISON HEALTH CARE	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	MADISON	125	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
8464	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CENTERVILLE	0.1%	44.6	B	TN	CENTERVILLE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8465	RADFORD HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	VA	RADFORD	90	DJ PETRINE LLC
8466	KNOLLWOOD HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	D	AL	MOBILE	71	—
8467	THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT	0.1%	44.6	D	IL	BRIDGEPORT	99	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
8468	EAST BAY REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	CLEARWATER	120	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
8469	PINE RIDGE SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	MORROW	50	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
8470	MADISON POINTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	119	FL SNF TRUST I
8471	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT RIVERVIEW	0.1%	44.6	A	MD	ESSEX	238	—
8472	DIERKS HEALTH AND REHAB OF DIERKS	0.1%	44.6	B	AR	DIERKS	70	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
8473	FAIRVIEW REHAB & HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	B	IL	DU QUOIN	76	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
8474	HARBOR HEALTHCARE OF IRONTON	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	IRONTON	125	ECC TRUST
8475	IGNITE MEDICAL HANOVER PARK	0.1%	44.6	C	IL	HANOVER PARK	150	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
8476	PLAZA COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	MS	PASCAGOULA	100	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
8477	PINE HILL REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	190	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
8478	STERLING CARE BETHESDA	0.1%	44.6	B	MD	BETHESDA	200	JEK IRRV TR
8479	CARE ONE AT ESSEX PARK	0.1%	44.6	F	MA	BEVERLY	202	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
8480	COMPLETE CARE AT MONMOUTH, LLC	0.1%	44.6	D	NJ	LONG BRANCH	120	SMS 2021 TRUST
8481	COUNTRY GARDENS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	MA	SWANSEA	86	ALPHA SNF MA LLC
8482	MCPHERSON OPERATOR, LLC	0.1%	44.6	C	KS	MCPHERSON	45	BARRES LLC
8483	BEECHWOOD HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	CT	NEW LONDON	60	WACHUSETT VENTURES LLC
8484	NHC HEALTHCARE, WEST PLAINS	0.1%	44.6	B	MO	WEST PLAINS	114	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
8485	Crosbyton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	Crosbyton	0	BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8486	THE SUMMIT	0.1%	44.6	A	LA	ALEXANDRIA	130	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
8487	Avir at Pasadena	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	PASADENA	0	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
8488	BRIARWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	CO	DENVER	201	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8489	MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	TX	MISSION	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8490	SUN MAR NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	CA	ANAHEIM	69	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
8491	HARBOR HOUSE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	MA	HINGHAM	142	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8492	OAHU CARE FACILITY	0.1%	44.6	B	HI	HONOLULU	82	PACIFIC SKILLED HEALTHCARE LLC
8493	Lincoln County Care Center	0.1%	44.6	A	ID	Shoshone	36	—
8494	The Woodlands Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	D	TX	The Woodlands	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8495	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SENECA	0.1%	44.6	C	KS	SENECA	60	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8496	BRADEN RIVER REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	BRADENTON	208	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8497	Chesaning Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	A	MI	Chesaning	51	—
8498	BEACH BREEZE REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	120	SUNSHINE SNF GROUP LLC
8499	THE ELEANOR NURSING CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	NY	HYDE PARK	120	—
8500	AVON PLACE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	AVON	91	—

Showing 8,451–8,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.