Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,251–9,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9251	CRESTWOOD MANOR - 104	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	STOCKTON	190	—
9252	COLONIAL POPLIN NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	B	NH	FREMONT	50	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9253	DESERT RIDGE TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER, LP	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	VICTORVILLE	—	—
9254	Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Gastonia	50	COALITION GROUP LLC
9255	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT KATY, LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	KATY	70	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
9256	Harrison Pointe Healthcare and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	C	UT	Ogden	63	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9257	Medford Nursing Center	0.1%	38.3	A	SC	Darlington	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
9258	Iron River Care Center	0.1%	38.3	C	MI	Iron River	69	—
9259	ALCOTT REHABILITATION HOSPITAL	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	121	—
9260	WECARE AT ROLLING MEADOWS REHAB AND NURSING CE	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	WAYNESBURG	121	—
9261	Reserve at Fort Gaines of Journey LLC, The	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	FORT GAINES	60	BARRES LLC
9262	Stonehenge of Cedar City	0.1%	38.3	B	UT	Cedar City	50	KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
9263	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE AT CEDAR HILL	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	ZANESVILLE	90	OHIO CARE SKLD LLC
9264	Avir at Knox City	0.1%	38.3	B	TX	KNOX CITY	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
9265	MAPLE VIEW HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CT	ROCKY HILL	120	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
9266	EXCEL CARE AT MANALAPAN	0.1%	38.3	D	NJ	MANALAPAN	132	—
9267	LEVINDALE HEBREW GER CTR & HSP	0.1%	38.3	C	MD	BALTIMORE	210	LIFEBRIDGE HEALTH INC
9268	Accura Healthcare of Toledo	0.1%	38.3	D	IA	Toledo	55	AVENUE94 LLC
9269	WOODHAVEN MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	DEMOPOLIS	75	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
9270	THE WILLOWS AT RAMAPO REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	SUFFERN	203	—
9271	PORT CHARLOTTE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	152	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
9272	Madison Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	C	KY	Richmond	92	GGKY OPCO LLC
9273	HARBORVIEW DECATUR	0.1%	38.3	B	GA	DECATUR	73	CL 2022 IRRV TR
9274	ORCHARDS AT TULARE	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	TULARE	99	MAGNOLIA HEALTH CORPORATION
9275	PILGRIM MANOR	0.1%	38.3	C	IN	PLYMOUTH	78	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9276	NHC HEALTHCARE, SMITHVILLE	0.1%	38.3	C	TN	SMITHVILLE	114	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
9277	Bettendorf Health Care Center	0.1%	38.3	D	IA	Bettendorf	86	—
9278	PRUITTHEALTH - LAFAYETTE	0.1%	38.3	B	GA	LAFAYETTE	100	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
9279	Thermopolis Rehabilitation and Wellness	0.1%	38.3	D	WY	Thermopolis	60	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
9280	Cedar Crest/Mountainview Gardens	0.1%	38.3	A	NJ	POMPTON PLAINS	113	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
9281	BEACHSIDE POST ACUTE	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	LONG BEACH	90	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
9282	SHADY GROVE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	MD	ROCKVILLE	154	RMA EQUITY LLC
9283	Pasadena Post Acute	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Pasadena	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
9284	WYNCOTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	WYNCOTE	58	—
9285	PALM GARDEN OF TAMPA	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	TAMPA	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
9286	CENTRAL TEXAS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	BALLINGER	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9287	DESERT PEAK CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	AZ	PHOENIX	194	—
9288	WESTVIEW OF DERBY REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CEN	0.1%	38.3	B	KS	DERBY	78	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9289	WATERS OF DILLSBORO-ROSS MANOR, THE	0.1%	38.3	C	IN	DILLSBORO	123	MAJOR HOSPITAL
9290	Letcher Manor	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Whitesburg	142	VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
9291	Pavilion Health Center at Brightmore	0.1%	38.3	B	NC	Charlotte	108	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9292	CROSSVIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	GA	PINEVIEW	102	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
9293	RESTORACY OF WHITESTOWN, THE	0.1%	38.3	A	IN	WHITESTOWN	72	DECATUR COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9294	Magnolia Manor - Spartanburg	0.1%	38.3	B	SC	Spartanburg	95	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
9295	Colonial Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Bowling Green	48	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
9296	Aristos Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	D	OH	CLEVELAND	57	AAA EMINENT LLC
9297	TRINITY REGIONAL REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	TRINITY	120	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
9298	VI AT THE GLEN	0.1%	38.3	A	IL	GLENVIEW	47	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9299	DIVERSICARE OF MOSS POINT	0.1%	38.3	A	MS	MOSS POINT	160	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
9300	RIVERVIEW	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	COLUMBUS	145	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC

Showing 9,251–9,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.