Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,301–1,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1301	Rockcastle Regional Hospital and Respiratory Care	2.1%	91.5	A	KY	Mount Vernon	143	—
1302	PIERCE MEMORIAL BAPTIST HOME, INC.	2.1%	91.5	A	CT	BROOKLYN	72	—
1303	THE TAMALPAIS	2.1%	91.5	A	CA	GREENBRAE	52	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
1304	SMITH CROSSING	2.1%	91.5	B	IL	ORLAND PARK	92	—
1305	THE COTTAGES AT GARDEN GROVE, A SKILLED NRSG COMM	2.1%	91.5	A	NY	CICERO	156	—
1306	GRACE HOME INC.	2.1%	91.5	A	CA	LIVINGSTON	33	—
1307	THE PRESERVE	2.1%	91.5	C	FL	FORT MYERS	75	—
1308	NORTH DAKOTA VETERANS HOME	2.1%	91.5	A	ND	LISBON	52	—
1309	KANSAS VETERANS HOME	2.1%	91.5	A	KS	WINFIELD	97	—
1310	Wecare at The Green Home	2.1%	91.5	C	PA	WELLSBORO	120	UPMC
1311	SMITH VILLAGE	2.1%	91.5	A	IL	CHICAGO	93	—
1312	REGINA HEALTH CENTER	2.1%	91.5	B	OH	RICHFIELD	99	—
1313	Chemung County Health Center - Nursing Facility	2.1%	91.4	A	NY	Elmira	200	COUNTY OF CHEMUNG
1314	RIVEROAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	2.1%	91.4	C	IN	PRINCETON	68	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
1315	DOCK TERRACE	2.1%	91.4	B	PA	LANSDALE	72	—
1316	James L West Center for Dementia Care	2.1%	91.4	D	TX	Fort Worth	112	—
1317	Glasgow State Nursing Facility	2.1%	91.4	A	KY	Glasgow	100	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
1318	STRASBURG NURSING HOME	2.1%	91.4	A	ND	STRASBURG	30	—
1319	KNIFE RIVER CARE CENTER	2.1%	91.4	A	ND	BEULAH	86	—
1320	NC State Veterans Home-Kinston	2.0%	91.4	C	NC	Kinston	100	—
1321	Good Neighbor Home	2.0%	91.4	C	IA	Manchester	112	—
1322	FRIENDSHIP MANOR	2.0%	91.4	A	IL	ROCK ISLAND	94	—
1323	Rocky Mountain Care- Clearfield	2.0%	91.4	D	UT	Clearfield	168	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
1324	HARBERT HILLS ACADEMY N H	2.0%	91.4	A	TN	SAVANNAH	49	—
1325	WATER'S EDGE	2.0%	91.4	A	WI	HAYWARD	50	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
1326	CHRISTIAN CARE NURSING CENTER	2.0%	91.4	A	AZ	PHOENIX	20	CHRISTIAN CARE MANAGMENT INC
1327	Laurel Heights Home for the Elderly	2.0%	91.3	A	KY	London	160	—
1328	Morning Star Care Center	2.0%	91.3	A	WY	Fort Washakie	45	—
1329	HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF BROOKS COUNTY, GEORGIA, THE	2.0%	91.3	B	GA	QUITMAN	188	—
1330	BRADFORD ECUMENICAL HOME, INC	2.0%	91.3	A	PA	BRADFORD	100	—
1331	CUBA MANOR INC	2.0%	91.3	B	MO	CUBA	90	—
1332	FAIRHOPE HEALTH & REHAB	2.0%	91.3	B	AL	FAIRHOPE	131	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
1333	CONCORDIA AT THE CEDARS	2.0%	91.3	A	PA	MONROEVILLE	59	—
1334	ST JOSEPH'S MANOR	2.0%	91.3	C	PA	MEADOWBROOK	296	—
1335	Trillium Place	2.0%	91.3	A	PA	LANCASTER	160	—
1336	NATHANIEL WITHERELL, THE	2.0%	91.3	B	CT	GREENWICH	202	—
1337	Pleasant View Shiawassee County Medical Care Facil	2.0%	91.3	A	MI	Owosso	136	—
1338	MANSFIELD PLACE	2.0%	91.3	B	WV	PHILIPPI	60	DAVIS HEALTH SYSTEM
1339	SAN MATEO MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	2.0%	91.3	C	CA	SAN MATEO	345	—
1340	CHATUGE REGIONAL NURSING HOME	2.0%	91.3	F	GA	HIAWASSEE	112	—
1341	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES BRISTOL VILLAGE	2.0%	91.3	B	OH	WAVERLY	40	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES HEALTH CARE
1342	Little Flower Manor	2.0%	91.3	A	PA	DARBY	127	HOLY REDEEMER HEALTH SYSTEM
1343	AVIATA AT THE HARBOR	2.0%	91.3	B	FL	SAFETY HARBOR	120	—
1344	SPIRO NURSING HOME, INC.	2.0%	91.3	A	OK	SPIRO	95	—
1345	Hill View Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation Cente	2.0%	91.2	B	OH	PORTSMOUTH	72	—
1346	Scott County Nursing Center	2.0%	91.2	A	IL	WINCHESTER	49	—
1347	THE VILLAGE AT ORCHARD RIDGE	2.0%	91.2	B	VA	WINCHESTER	20	—
1348	MARION REGIONAL NURSING HOME	2.0%	91.2	A	AL	HAMILTON	79	NORTH MISSISSIPPI HEALTH SERVICES INC
1349	DRIFTWOOD NURSING CENTER	2.0%	91.2	B	MS	GULFPORT	151	—
1350	GASCONADE MANOR NURSING HOME	2.0%	91.2	B	MO	OWENSVILLE	79	POWERBACK REHABILITATION LLC

Showing 1,301–1,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.