Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,601–2,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2601	West Point Care Center Inc	0.8%	83.0	B	IA	West Point	46	THOMAS F JUCKETTE MARITAL TRUST
2602	Gracewood Health & Rehab	0.8%	83.0	D	OK	Tulsa	121	—
2603	MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	83.0	B	PA	DALLAS	130	—
2604	Cypress Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	83.0	F	TX	San Marcos	0	—
2605	The Seasons at Alexandria	0.8%	83.0	C	KY	Alexandria	117	—
2606	Avera Eureka Health Care Center	0.8%	83.0	A	SD	EUREKA	56	AVERA HEALTH
2607	Oakridge Gardens Nur Ctr, Inc	0.8%	83.0	A	WI	Menasha	106	—
2608	15 CRAIGSIDE	0.8%	83.0	A	HI	HONOLULU	45	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
2609	GROTON COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE CTR RES CARE FAC	0.7%	82.9	B	NY	GROTON	80	—
2610	FULTON NURSING & REHAB	0.7%	82.9	D	MO	FULTON	100	—
2611	Community Medical Center Tcu	0.7%	82.9	A	NJ	TOMS RIVER	25	RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH INC
2612	Heritage Estates	0.7%	82.9	A	NE	Gering	102	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2613	SYLACAUGA HEALTH AND REHAB SERVICES	0.7%	82.9	A	AL	SYLACAUGA	149	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
2614	Eldora Specialty Care	0.7%	82.9	A	IA	Eldora	46	CARE INITIATIVES
2615	Birchwood Care Home	0.7%	82.9	D	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	60	—
2616	COVENANT LIVING OF GOLDEN VALLEY CARE & REHAB CTR	0.7%	82.9	A	MN	GOLDEN VALLEY	88	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
2617	MONUMENT HEALTH STURGIS CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.9	A	SD	STURGIS	40	MONUMENT HEALTH INC
2618	WESLEY MANOR HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.9	D	IN	FRANKFORT	96	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
2619	WILLOWS OF GREENSBURG	0.7%	82.9	B	IN	GREENSBURG	100	MAJOR HOSPITAL
2620	MEADOWBROOK RESPIRATORY AND NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.9	C	NJ	MATAWAN	130	JMH FAMILY LLC
2621	SAUGUS CENTER	0.7%	82.9	C	MA	SAUGUS	80	—
2622	DEPT OF STATE HOSPITALS - NAPA D/P SNF	0.7%	82.8	A	CA	NAPA	36	—
2623	MOTHER ANGELINE MCCRORY MANOR	0.7%	82.8	C	OH	COLUMBUS	126	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
2624	MODOC MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.7%	82.8	A	CA	ALTURAS	84	—
2625	FATHER BAKER MANOR	0.7%	82.8	B	NY	ORCHARD PARK	160	—
2626	HARTWYCK AT OAK TREE	0.7%	82.8	B	NJ	EDISON	120	HACKENSACK MERIDIAN HEALTH INC
2627	DELLS NURSING AND REHAB CENTER INC	0.7%	82.8	B	SD	DELL RAPIDS	50	—
2628	Lakeview Methodist Health Care Center	0.7%	82.8	A	MN	FAIRMONT	72	—
2629	AVIR AT CHILDRESS	0.7%	82.8	B	TX	CHILDRESS	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2630	CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER OF BOLIVAR, LLC	0.7%	82.8	B	TN	BOLIVAR	67	—
2631	THE MASSACHUSETTS VETERANS HOME AT CHELSEA	0.7%	82.8	A	MA	CHELSEA	154	THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS
2632	SACHEM CENTER FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.8	F	MA	EAST BRIDGEWATER	111	—
2633	CHANDLER NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.8	C	TX	CHANDLER	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2634	OCHSNER MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	82.8	B	LA	JEFFERSON	30	—
2635	BETHANY VILLAGE	0.7%	82.8	A	OH	DAYTON	227	GRACEWORKS LUTHERAN SERVICES
2636	Newton Village Health Care Center	0.7%	82.8	B	IA	Newton	24	CASSIA
2637	OTTERBEIN FRANKLIN SENIORLIFE COMM RES & COM CARE	0.7%	82.7	B	IN	FRANKLIN	208	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2638	HOSPITAL DE LA CONCEPCION INC	0.7%	82.7	F	PR	SAN GERMAN	30	—
2639	CEDAR HILL NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.7%	82.7	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
2640	MCV HEALTH CARE FACILITIES, INC	0.7%	82.7	A	OH	MASON	73	THE CHRISTIAN BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION OF GREATER CINCINNATI INC
2641	THE VILLAGE AT INCARNATE WORD	0.7%	82.7	A	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	INCARNATE WORD RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC
2642	SAINT ANN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.7	A	NH	DOVER	54	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
2643	LAFAYETTE NURSING HOME	0.7%	82.7	B	AL	LAFAYETTE	63	—
2644	MONTEVISTA REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE	0.7%	82.7	D	OK	LAWTON	105	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
2645	FREELANDVILLE COMMUNITY HOME	0.7%	82.7	A	IN	FREELANDVILLE	45	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
2646	ROANOKE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.7%	82.7	A	AL	ROANOKE	65	—
2647	OAK MANOR HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.7	C	FL	LARGO	180	—
2648	WESTWOOD HILLS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.7	F	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	132	—
2649	LEGENDARY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.7	D	MO	MARSHALL	92	—
2650	Evangeline Oaks Guest House	0.7%	82.7	B	LA	Carencro	190	—

Showing 2,601–2,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.