Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,751–3,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3751	Scenic Manor	0.5%	75.5	B	IA	Iowa Falls	77	—
3752	ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.5	D	MO	CEDAR HILL	150	KFT IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3753	GOOD SHEPHERD HOME RAKER CENTER	0.5%	75.5	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	99	GOOD SHEPHERD REHABILITATION NETWORK
3754	KAUAI VETERANS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.5%	75.5	A	HI	WAIMEA	20	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
3755	MIRADOR	0.5%	75.5	C	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
3756	Jewish Home and Care Center	0.5%	75.5	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	102	—
3757	PINE RUN HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	75.5	A	PA	DOYLESTOWN	90	—
3758	GEORGE ADE MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.5	B	IN	BROOK	70	—
3759	Brookestone of Papillion	0.5%	75.3	B	NE	Papillion	110	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
3760	WARROAD CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.3	B	MN	WARROAD	49	—
3761	Pocotaligo River Health And Rehab	0.5%	75.3	B	SC	Manning	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3762	Still Hopes Episcopal Retirement Community	0.5%	75.3	A	SC	West Columbia	22	FUNCTIONAL PATHWAYS OF TENNESSEE LLC
3763	WILLIAMSPORT NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.3	B	IN	WILLIAMSPORT	80	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3764	ASHFORD PLACE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.5%	75.3	C	IN	SHELBYVILLE	68	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
3765	PROVIDENCE LITTLE CO OF MARY TRANSITIONAL CARE CTR	0.5%	75.3	B	CA	TORRANCE	115	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
3766	THE LEGACY MIDTOWN PARK	0.5%	75.3	B	TX	DALLAS	54	THE LEGACY SENIOR COMMUNITIES INC
3767	BEL AIR CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.3	A	OH	ALLIANCE	45	—
3768	PROVIDENCE CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.3	C	OH	SANDUSKY	138	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
3769	LORIEN BULLE ROCK	0.5%	75.3	C	MD	HAVRE DE GRACE	78	—
3770	PINNACLE HEALTH & REHAB AT SANFORD	0.5%	75.3	B	ME	SANFORD	86	—
3771	OAKS AT DENVILLE, THE	0.5%	75.3	B	NJ	DENVILLE	84	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
3772	BRADFORD HOUSE NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	0.5%	75.3	B	AR	BENTONVILLE	97	—
3773	GREENWOOD VILLAGE SOUTH	0.5%	75.3	A	IN	GREENWOOD	137	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3774	MID COAST SENIOR HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	75.3	B	ME	BRUNSWICK	42	MAINEHEALTH SERVICES
3775	WOODBURY HEIGHTS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	75.3	F	NY	WOODBURY	606	—
3776	Highland Park Care Center	0.5%	75.3	B	TX	Houston	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3777	CORDOVA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.5%	75.3	B	AL	CORDOVA	114	—
3778	THOMAS HOSPITALS SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.5%	75.3	A	WV	CHARLESTON	29	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
3779	The Ambassador Nebraska City, Inc	0.5%	75.3	B	NE	Nebraska City	71	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
3780	THE PINE OF CAMDEN, LLC	0.5%	75.3	B	AL	CAMDEN	95	SASSER ENTERPRISES INC
3781	Mission at Richfield Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.5%	75.3	F	UT	Richfield	98	GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
3782	RICHLAND BEAN BLOSSOM HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.3	C	IN	ELLETTSVILLE	74	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
3783	Bethany Home of Rhode Island	0.5%	75.3	A	RI	Providence	33	—
3784	TOWNE SQUARE CARE OF PURYEAR	0.5%	75.3	B	TN	PURYEAR	32	—
3785	Jewish Healthcare Center	0.5%	75.3	A	MA	WORCESTER	141	—
3786	Avir at Commerce	0.5%	75.3	B	TX	COMMERCE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3787	NORTH COUNTY CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.1	C	OK	COLLINSVILLE	119	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS II LLC
3788	Assumption Home	0.5%	75.1	A	MN	COLD SPRING	76	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
3789	Macon Valley Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	75.1	C	NC	Franklin	200	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
3790	Saint Anne Home	0.5%	75.1	C	PA	GREENSBURG	155	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
3791	PARKDALE MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.5%	75.1	C	MO	MARYVILLE	86	MO OP HOLDCO LLC
3792	ELK CROSSING	0.5%	75.1	A	OK	DUNCAN	120	—
3793	KENDAL AT OBERLIN	0.5%	75.1	A	OH	OBERLIN	5	—
3794	ST JOHN KRONSTADT CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.5%	75.1	A	CA	CASTRO VALLEY	49	—
3795	TRAILPOINT VILLAGE	0.5%	75.1	F	IN	SOUTH BEND	183	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3796	EVENTIDE JAMESTOWN	0.5%	75.1	A	ND	JAMESTOWN	79	EVENTIDE
3797	THE GARDENS AND GUARDIAN	0.5%	75.1	B	LA	LAKE CHARLES	60	—
3798	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT BRAINTREE	0.5%	75.1	A	MA	BRAINTREE	101	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
3799	ESTATES OF SPANISH LAKE, THE	0.5%	75.1	F	MO	SAINT LOUIS	150	—
3800	ORANGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	75.1	A	CT	ORANGE	60	—

Showing 3,751–3,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.