Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,301–6,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6301	Good Samaritan Society - Stillwater	0.2%	58.2	C	MN	STILLWATER	50	SANFORD
6302	BROOKLYN GARDENS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
6303	KISSIMMEE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	FL	KISSIMMEE	59	—
6304	Heritage Gardens Health Care Center	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	Loma Linda	110	COTTON FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST
6305	LORETTO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	NY	SYRACUSE	583	—
6306	MARQUIS VERMONT HILLS	0.2%	58.2	B	OR	PORTLAND	73	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
6307	Clearwater Health & Rehabilitation of Cascadia	0.2%	58.2	C	ID	Orofino	60	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
6308	AVIR AT CARTHAGE	0.2%	58.2	C	TX	CARTHAGE	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
6309	STEPHENVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	58.2	A	TX	STEPHENVILLE	0	GHC LTC MANAGEMENT, LLC
6310	ASBURY COURT NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	58.2	B	IL	DES PLAINES	79	—
6311	LANDMARK CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	58.2	C	WA	YAKIMA	93	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
6312	ARBORS AT WOODSFIELD	0.2%	58.2	B	OH	WOODSFIELD	85	B&Y TRUST
6313	Shandin Hills Behavior Therapy Center	0.2%	58.2	C	CA	San Bernardino	78	—
6314	Pauls Valley Care Center	0.2%	58.2	C	OK	Pauls Valley	71	—
6315	Anson Health and Rehabilitation	0.2%	58.2	B	NC	Wadesboro	95	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
6316	ARCADIA VALLEY SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	COOLVILLE	50	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
6317	BELMONT HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	CA	BELMONT	74	—
6318	PARKER HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	IN	PARKER CITY	89	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6319	PETERSON PARK HEALTH CARE CTR	0.2%	58.2	F	IL	CHICAGO	196	—
6320	VANCREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	VAN WERT	93	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
6321	APERION CARE MIDLOTHIAN	0.2%	58.2	A	IL	MIDLOTHIAN	91	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL
6322	MASON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	OH	MASON	43	—
6323	RIDGEWOOD MANOR	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	MAUMEE	90	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
6324	Grace Nursing Home	0.2%	58.2	B	LA	Slaughter	128	—
6325	ONEIDA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.2%	58.2	B	NY	UTICA	120	—
6326	SAGE PARK AUSTIN	0.2%	58.2	C	TX	AUSTIN	0	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
6327	GLENDORA HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	D	OH	WOOSTER	49	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
6328	PARKSIDE MANOR	0.2%	58.2	F	MO	COLUMBIA	120	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6329	LIVIA HEALTH AND SENIOR LIVING	0.2%	58.2	D	NJ	EAST HANOVER	86	—
6330	WAYLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	VA	KEYSVILLE	90	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
6331	THE LINGENFELTER CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	AZ	KINGMAN	88	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
6332	Martha T Berry MCF	0.2%	58.2	A	MI	Mount Clemems	217	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
6333	IMMANUEL'S HEALTHCARE	0.2%	58.2	D	TX	FORT WORTH	0	TGR HEALTHCARE LLC
6334	New London Specialty Care	0.2%	58.2	A	IA	New London	43	CARE INITIATIVES
6335	LAFAYETTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	FL	MAYO	60	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
6336	ROYAL NURSING CENTER, LLC	0.2%	58.2	C	MA	FALMOUTH	121	—
6337	PLACE AT MARTINEZ, THE	0.2%	58.2	A	GA	AUGUSTA	100	—
6338	WESTERVILLE POST ACUTE.	0.2%	58.2	D	OH	WESTERVILLE	130	DMD MANAGEMENT INC
6339	PROSPER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	FL	PALM BEACH GARDENS	120	—
6340	PILGRIM PLACE HEALTH SERVICES CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	CLAREMONT	62	—
6341	ALTERCARE OF WADSWORTH	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	WADSWORTH	90	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
6342	Mississippi Valley	0.2%	58.2	A	IA	Keokuk	83	LEXINGTON SQUARE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
6343	ST OTTOS CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	MN	LITTLE FALLS	86	—
6344	Querencia at Barton Creek	0.2%	58.2	B	TX	Austin	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
6345	August Healthcare at Wilmington	0.2%	58.2	C	NC	Wilmington	120	AUGUSTNC HOLDCO LLC
6346	Accura Healthcare of Onawa	0.2%	58.2	B	IA	Onawa	46	AVENUE94 LLC
6347	KINGSTON OF MIAMISBURG	0.2%	58.2	B	OH	MIAMISBURG	113	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
6348	AVON HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	CT	AVON	120	—
6349	GREENFIELDS OF GENEVA	0.2%	58.2	C	IL	GENEVA	43	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
6350	Muskego Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	58.2	A	WI	MUSKEGO	49	—

Showing 6,301–6,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.