Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,501–7,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7501	EMPORIA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.1%	50.7	A	KS	EMPORIA	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7502	Brookestone Village	0.1%	50.7	A	NE	Omaha	140	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7503	SOUTHRIDGE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	HEBER SPRINGS	122	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7504	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at G	0.1%	50.7	C	NY	GASPORT	83	—
7505	Shoreland Health Care and Retirement Center Inc	0.1%	50.7	B	NC	Whiteville	89	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
7506	LUXE AT LUTZ REHABILITATION CENTER (THE)	0.1%	50.7	B	FL	LUTZ	120	—
7507	NORTHSIDE HEALTH CARE	0.1%	50.7	B	AL	GADSDEN	115	MOSES STRAUSS FAMILY 2022 TRUST
7508	PELHAM PARKWAY NURSING CARE & REHAB FACILITY L L C	0.1%	50.7	C	NY	BRONX	200	—
7509	BRIARFIELD AT ASHLEY CIRCLE	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	74	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
7510	MARQUIS HOPE VILLAGE	0.1%	50.7	A	OR	CANBY	50	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
7511	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT ADAMS PARC	0.1%	50.7	C	OK	BARTLESVILLE	92	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
7512	HERITAGE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	D	CA	TORRANCE	161	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
7513	CENTRALIA MANOR	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	CENTRALIA	120	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
7514	HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	67	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7515	STONEHAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	AL	BESSEMER	79	GNH IRRV TR
7516	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY -- FORT COLLINS VILLAGE	0.1%	50.7	B	CO	FORT COLLINS	64	SANFORD
7517	ALLISONVILLE MEADOWS	0.1%	50.7	C	IN	FISHERS	161	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7518	Mon Valley Care Center	0.1%	50.7	B	PA	MONONGAHELA	60	—
7519	OCEANSIDE CARE CENTER INC	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	OCEANSIDE	100	—
7520	MEADOWBROOK CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	CINCINNATI	146	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
7521	AVIATA AT CENTRAL PARK	0.1%	50.7	B	FL	BRANDON	120	—
7522	HALEYVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	AL	HALEYVILLE	97	M MELB OPCO LLC
7523	HERITAGE HALL-RICH CREEK	0.1%	50.7	B	VA	RICH CREEK	120	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7524	The Ambassador Sidney Inc	0.1%	50.7	A	IA	Sidney	46	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
7525	BELL MINOR HOME, THE	0.1%	50.7	C	GA	GAINESVILLE	104	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
7526	LEDGEWOOD REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	MA	BEVERLY	123	—
7527	SEABRANCH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	FL	STUART	120	—
7528	CHEROKEE ROSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	GLEN ROSE	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7529	SPANISH COVE HOUSING AUTHORITY	0.1%	50.7	A	OK	YUKON	47	—
7530	The Citadel at Saint Anne Place	0.1%	50.7	D	IL	ROCKFORD	179	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7531	Wedgewood Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	Spencerport	29	—
7532	WESTSIDE TERRACE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	AL	DOTHAN	165	TURENNE & ASSOCIATES LLC
7533	ATHENS POST ACUTE LLC	0.1%	50.7	C	FL	DELAND	60	KMOM LLC
7534	YORK Post Acute	0.1%	50.7	C	VA	YORKTOWN	80	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
7535	Wellspring Lutheran Services	0.1%	50.7	A	MI	Fairview	39	LUTHERAN HOMES OF MICHIGAN INC
7536	SKY VIEW REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER L L C	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	CROTON ON HUDSON	192	—
7537	THE WILSHIRE SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.1%	50.7	B	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	56	BRIDGES ESOP INC
7538	Avir at Park Bend	0.1%	50.7	D	TX	Austin	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7539	Cascades at Riverwalk	0.1%	50.7	C	UT	Midvale	120	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7540	Fairview Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	0.1%	50.7	C	MI	Centreville	64	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
7541	WOODLAKE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	MN	CRYSTAL	188	—
7542	LAKELAND VILLAGE NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	50.7	B	WA	MEDICAL LAKE	93	—
7543	SERENITY ESTATES AT MORRIS	0.1%	50.7	F	IL	MORRIS	142	—
7544	GADSDEN HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	AL	GADSDEN	168	PRESTON HEALTH SERVICES INC
7545	EVERGREEN LIVING CENTER AT STAGECOACH	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	BRYANT	116	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7546	AVENUE AT MACEDONIA	0.1%	50.7	D	OH	MACEDONIA	98	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
7547	BRYANT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	GA	COCHRAN	75	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
7548	THE PHOENIX POST-ACUTE	0.1%	50.7	A	TX	TEXAS CITY	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7549	FAIR CITY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	50.7	D	LA	FRANKLINTON	121	M5 OPERATIONS LLC
7550	PRESTIGE NURSING CARE & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	50.7	D	NY	BRONX	400	—

Showing 7,501–7,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.