Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

601–650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
601	SYMPHONY NORTHWOODS	8.4%	96.5	F	IL	BELVIDERE	113	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
602	Lincoln Knolls Health & Rehab LLC	8.3%	96.4	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	62	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
603	Greenhaven Health and Rehabilitation Center	8.3%	96.4	C	NC	Greensboro	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
604	The Laurels of Fulton	8.3%	96.4	B	MI	Perrinton	50	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
605	Complete Care at Nazareth LLC	8.3%	96.4	C	WI	Stoughton	99	EEF CAPITAL LLC
606	MAJESTIC CARE OF GOSHEN	8.3%	96.4	C	IN	GOSHEN	186	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
607	Hillcrest Care & Rehabilitation Center	8.3%	96.4	C	MN	MANKATO	95	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
608	HUDSON VALLEY REHABILITATION & EXTENDED CARE CTR	8.3%	96.4	D	NY	HIGHLAND	203	—
609	Albuquerque Heights Healthcare and Rehabilitation	8.3%	96.4	B	NM	Albuquerque	134	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
610	EAGLE VALLEY MEADOWS	8.3%	96.4	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	114	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
611	SPRINGS AT BOCA CIEGA BAY	8.3%	96.4	B	FL	SOUTH PASADENA	109	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
612	WESTERN HILLS HEALTH CARE CENTER	8.3%	96.4	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	140	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
613	TIPTON OAK MANOR	8.3%	96.4	B	MO	TIPTON	66	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
614	THE BLOSSOMS AT NEWPORT REHAB & NURSING CENTER	8.3%	96.4	B	AR	NEWPORT	120	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
615	HERITAGE CARE CENTER	8.3%	96.4	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
616	Medilodge of Mt. Pleasant	8.3%	96.4	B	MI	Mt. Pleasant	104	B&Y TRUST
617	Pine Knoll Nursing Center	8.3%	96.4	C	MA	LEXINGTON	81	—
618	ROCKY RIDGE MANOR	8.3%	96.4	F	MO	MANSFIELD	65	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
619	WATERS OF ROCKPORT SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	8.3%	96.3	D	IN	ROCKPORT	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
620	CONCORD CARE CENTER OF CORTLAND	8.2%	96.3	D	OH	CORTLAND	0	—
621	BROOKDALE WESTLAKE HILLS	8.2%	96.3	C	TX	AUSTIN	0	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
622	Keystone Ridge Post Acute Nursing and Rehabilitati	8.2%	96.3	C	NE	Omaha	100	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
623	Ely Manor	8.2%	96.3	F	MI	Allegan	101	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
624	Premier Rehab and Healthcare at Berlin	8.2%	96.3	D	VT	Barre	115	—
625	EverVella of White Hall	8.2%	96.3	C	IL	WHITE HALL	119	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
626	HOLLY MANOR CENTER	8.2%	96.3	C	NJ	MENDHAM	124	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
627	Palm Terrace Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	8.2%	96.3	C	CA	LAGUNA HILLS	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
628	WILLOWS CENTER	8.2%	96.3	C	WV	PARKERSBURG	97	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
629	Canyon West of Cascadia	8.2%	96.3	C	ID	Caldwell	103	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
630	HAMMONDS LANE CENTER	8.2%	96.3	B	MD	BROOKLYN PARK	113	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
631	Rosewood at Tybee Island of Journey LLC, The	8.2%	96.3	D	GA	TYBEE ISLAND	85	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
632	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF CINCINNATI	8.2%	96.3	B	OH	CINCINNATI	46	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
633	Accura Healthcare of Carroll	8.2%	96.3	C	IA	Carroll	65	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
634	OAKBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	8.2%	96.3	A	WI	THORP	58	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
635	Wewoka Healthcare Center	8.2%	96.2	C	OK	Wewoka	87	—
636	ANN PEARL NURSING FACILITY	8.2%	96.2	D	HI	KANEOHE	104	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
637	OAKWOOD HEIGHTS VILLAGE	8.2%	96.2	B	PA	OIL CITY	106	HILLEL TROPPER 2016 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
638	ALDEN ESTATES OF SKOKIE	8.2%	96.2	B	IL	SKOKIE	56	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
639	SKIATOOK NURSING HOME,LLC	8.2%	96.2	A	OK	SKIATOOK	70	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
640	NORTHAMPTON MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	8.2%	96.2	D	MD	FREDERICK	196	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
641	North Star Ranch Rehabilitation and Health Care Ce	8.2%	96.2	D	TX	Bonham	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
642	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING EAST PRAIRIE	8.2%	96.2	B	MO	EAST PRAIRIE	52	CHP SNFCO LLC
643	AVIR AT JEFFERSON	8.2%	96.2	C	TX	JEFFERSON	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
644	LAKE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	8.2%	96.2	B	TX	LEWISVILLE	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
645	ELM WOOD CENTER AT CLAREMONT	8.2%	96.2	B	NH	CLAREMONT	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
646	Hazelhurst Court Care and Rehabilitation Center	8.2%	96.2	C	GA	HAZLEHURST	73	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
647	CHEYENNE MANOR	8.2%	96.2	A	CO	CHEYENNE WELLS	39	—
648	PILOT BUTTE REHABILITATION CENTER	8.2%	96.2	C	OR	BEND	74	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
649	ALDEN LONG GROVE REHAB &HC CTR	8.2%	96.2	F	IL	LONG GROVE	248	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
650	QUAIL RUN HEALTH CARE CENTER	8.2%	96.2	C	MO	CAMERON	84	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC

Showing 601–650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.