Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,201–7,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7201	Southeast Iowa Healthcare Center	0.1%	52.1	C	IA	Keokuk	55	LEXINGTON SQUARE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7202	SMITHTOWN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING CARE	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	SMITHTOWN	162	—
7203	AICOTA HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	MN	AITKIN	56	—
7204	Pinewood Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	C	GA	WHIGHAM	142	STATESBORO HOLDCO LLC
7205	CAMERON NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	D	MO	CAMERON	120	FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
7206	COMPLETE CARE AT HOLIDAY CITY	0.1%	52.1	C	NJ	TOMS RIVER	180	EEF CAPITAL LLC
7207	FAIR VIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	MO	SEDALIA	75	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7208	Prescott Valley Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	C	AZ	PRESCOTT VALLEY	58	FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
7209	THE SPRINGS OF PINNACLE MOUNTAIN	0.1%	52.1	C	AR	LITTLE ROCK	110	BLUE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
7210	PAMPA NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	TX	PAMPA	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7211	SILVER OAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	52.1	C	IN	COLUMBUS	80	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7212	Gonzales Healthcare Center	0.1%	52.1	C	LA	Gonzales	120	NEXION HEALTH INC
7213	Maysville Nursing and Rehabilitation Facility	0.1%	52.1	B	KY	Maysville	130	KENNEDY KY HOLDINGS LLC
7214	FRIEDWALD CENTER FOR REHAB AND NURSING, L L C	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	NEW CITY	180	—
7215	AVANTARA EVERGREEN PARK	0.1%	52.1	F	IL	EVERGREEN PARK	242	—
7216	ALTERCARE OF CUYAHOGA FALLS CTR FOR REHAB & NURSIN	0.1%	52.1	D	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	91	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
7217	Harlan Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	52.1	B	KY	Harlan	143	SEKY HOLDING CO
7218	VALLEY VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	CA	NORTH HOLLYWOOD	99	—
7219	Goldthwaite Health & Rehab Center	0.1%	52.1	F	TX	Goldthwaite	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7220	Swannanoa Valley Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	A	NC	Swannanoa	106	PISGAH HOLDCO LLC
7221	PIONEER HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	CO	ROCKY FORD	101	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
7222	PLEASANT VIEW NURSING HOME	0.1%	52.1	B	MO	ROCK PORT	60	DKDP MISSOURI LLC
7223	SAN RAFAEL HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER, LP	0.1%	52.1	D	CA	SAN RAFAEL	54	CORPORATE INTERFACE SERVICES LLC
7224	PLANTATION MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	52.1	A	AL	MC CALLA	103	—
7225	LUXOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION AT SAYVILLE	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	SAYVILLE	180	—
7226	QUANTUM REHABILITATION AND NURSING L L C	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	MIDDLE ISLAND	120	—
7227	Colfax Nursing and Rehab, LLC	0.1%	52.1	C	LA	COLFAX	140	—
7228	BUENA VIDA REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
7229	REGENCY HOUSE	0.1%	52.1	B	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7230	AVITA HEALTH AND REHAB AT REEDS COVE	0.1%	52.1	B	KS	WICHITA	76	AXIOM CONSULTING LLC
7231	CHATEAU LIVING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	D	LA	KENNER	215	MEDICO LLC
7232	ALTERCARE OF MAYFIELD VILLAGE, INC	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	MAYFIELD VILLAGE	52	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
7233	ABSOLUT CTR FOR NURSING & REHAB ENDICOTT L L C	0.1%	52.1	A	NY	ENDICOTT	160	ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT LLC
7234	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ALBERT LEA	0.1%	52.1	A	MN	ALBERT LEA	80	SANFORD
7235	NHC HEALTHCARE, KENNETT	0.1%	52.1	C	MO	KENNETT	170	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
7236	Plymouth Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	0.1%	52.1	C	MA	PLYMOUTH	186	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
7237	Harbor Post Acute Center	0.1%	52.1	D	MI	Wyoming	65	—
7238	ADVENA LIVING AT FOUNTAINVIEW	0.1%	52.1	C	KS	ROSE HILL	50	CGHII INC
7239	LUTHERAN VILLAGE AT WOLFCREEK	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	HOLLAND	67	—
7240	SILVIS CENTER FOR NURSING REHAB & CARE	0.1%	52.1	C	IL	SILVIS	120	—
7241	ST JAMES WELLNESS REHAB VILLAS	0.1%	52.1	C	IL	CRETE	110	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
7242	HALE MAKUA - KAHULUI	0.1%	52.1	C	HI	KAHULUI	252	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
7243	MAJESTIC CARE OF FORT WAYNE	0.1%	52.1	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	70	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7244	Summit Ridge Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	D	WY	Douglas	60	NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7245	SOUTHERN OAKS CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	OK	PAWNEE	82	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
7246	MOUNT MIGUEL COVENANT VILLAGE	0.1%	52.1	B	CA	SPRING VALLEY	90	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7247	DELAWARE OAKS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSI	0.1%	52.1	C	NY	BUFFALO	95	—
7248	THE SPRINGS AT WYANDOT TRAIL	0.1%	52.1	A	OH	LANCASTER	52	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
7249	ORCHARDS OF EAST LIVERPOOL, THE	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	50	ORCHARDS FAMILY MANAGEMENT LLC
7250	BARTON HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.1%	52.1	A	CA	SOUTH LAKE TAHOE	48	—

Showing 7,201–7,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.