Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,551–7,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7551	RIVERWAYS MANOR	0.1%	50.7	B	MO	VAN BUREN	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7552	ELIZABETH SETON CHILDREN'S CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	YONKERS	169	—
7553	The Alverno Health Care Facility	0.1%	50.7	B	IA	Clinton	112	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7554	FOX RUN AT ORCHARD PARK	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	ORCHARD PARK	60	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
7555	THE SPRINGS OF BARROW	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	139	BLUE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
7556	Carriage House Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	50.7	B	MI	Bay City	120	—
7557	RIVERS EDGE REHABILITATION AND CARE	0.1%	50.7	B	OR	SHERIDAN	51	SAPPHIRE HEALTHCARE SRVS
7558	Walnut Ridge	0.1%	50.7	A	IA	Clive	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7559	CADIA REHABILITATION PIKE CREEK	0.1%	50.7	C	DE	WILMINGTON	177	LONG TERM CARE CORP
7560	GREENWAY MANOR	0.1%	50.7	A	WI	SPRING GREEN	50	—
7561	SAN SABA NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	SAN SABA	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7562	LINDEN CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	BROOKLYN	280	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7563	PARMA CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	PARMA	104	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
7564	Metairie Health Care Center	0.1%	50.7	C	LA	METAIRIE	202	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7565	PARK MANOR OF CONROE	0.1%	50.7	C	TX	CONROE	0	—
7566	MYERS NURSING & CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.1%	50.7	F	MO	KANSAS CITY	84	—
7567	REGAL HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CTR	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	JACKSON HEIGHTS	280	—
7568	CARROLL HEALTHCARE CENTER INC	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	CARROLLTON	52	JCTH HOLDINGS INC
7569	NORTHERN RIVERVIEW HEALTH CARE, INC	0.1%	49.0	B	NY	HAVERSTRAW	182	—
7570	THE WATERS OF SHELBYVILLE, LLC	0.1%	49.0	A	TN	SHELBYVILLE	96	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
7571	LAKELAND REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	ANGOLA	75	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7572	Good Samaritan Society - Atkinson	0.1%	49.0	F	NE	Atkinson	61	SANFORD
7573	WEST HARTFORD HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	CT	WEST HARTFORD	160	—
7574	LOUISVILLE GARDENS CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	OH	LOUISVILLE	99	—
7575	SOUTH HERITAGE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	F	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	74	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7576	PARKSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	FL	DELAND	122	BLUE SPRING HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
7577	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - KNOX CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	KNOX	57	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7578	Paradigm at The Pines	0.1%	49.0	D	TX	SILSBEE	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
7579	ALTERNATIVE HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLC	0.1%	49.0	A	PR	SAN JUAN	22	—
7580	Rosepine Retirement & Rehab Center, LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	LA	Rosepine	108	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7581	Harmony Hall Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	B	NC	Kinston	175	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
7582	BROOKFIELD HEALTH AND REHAB OF CASCADIA	0.1%	49.0	C	WA	BATTLE GROUND	83	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
7583	Meadow View Health Services	0.1%	49.0	B	WI	Sheboygan	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7584	CLEVELAND COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	MS	CLEVELAND	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7585	LEISURE GLEN POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	CA	GLENDALE	108	—
7586	CENTRO DE CUIDADO PROLONGADO SAN LUCAS	0.1%	49.0	B	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	25	IGLESIA EPISCOPAL PUERTORRIQUENA INC
7587	GARDEN PARK CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	CA	GARDEN GROVE	124	—
7588	Good Samaritan Society - Mountain Lake	0.1%	49.0	A	MN	MOUNTAIN LAKE	48	SANFORD
7589	FORTRESS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	D	TX	COLLEGE STATION	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7590	HICKORY VLG NRSG & RHB	0.1%	49.0	D	IL	HICKORY HILLS	74	WISSATI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7591	AVALON CARE CENTER - PORTLAND	0.1%	49.0	A	OR	PORTLAND	40	—
7592	LINDEN WOODS VILLAGE	0.1%	49.0	A	MO	GLADSTONE	40	WSG LLC
7593	MILLER'S HEALTH & REHAB BY MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.1%	49.0	B	IN	LA PORTE	81	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7594	Aloha Nursing & Rehab Centre	0.1%	49.0	C	HI	Kaneohe	141	—
7595	Tri Cities Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.1%	49.0	B	KY	Cumberland	85	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
7596	TITUSVILLE NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	49.0	B	PA	TITUSVILLE	77	ISKEB 2024 TRUST
7597	Gates Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	B	NC	Gatesville	70	AUGUSTNC HOLDCO LLC
7598	AVERA GRANITE FALLS CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	MN	GRANITE FALLS	48	AVERA HEALTH
7599	Chariton Specialty Care	0.1%	49.0	C	IA	Chariton	60	CARE INITIATIVES
7600	WINDSOR HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	58	WINDSOR HOUSE INC

Showing 7,551–7,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.