Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,101–9,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9101	CAMELOT OF BROUSSARD	0.1%	38.3	C	LA	BROUSSARD	148	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
9102	WILLOW BRANCH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	B	TN	MCMINNVILLE	140	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
9103	Complete Care at Nazareth LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	WI	Stoughton	99	EEF CAPITAL LLC
9104	LOTUS CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	40	GREAT NECK MANAGEMENT INC
9105	NEWTON PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.1%	38.3	B	KS	NEWTON	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
9106	CEDAR CROSSINGS	0.1%	38.3	C	OR	PORTLAND	89	SAPPHIRE HEALTHCARE SRVS
9107	COASTAL POST ACUTE	0.1%	38.3	C	CA	SALINAS	80	9560 PICO LLC
9108	SANDS POINT CENTER FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	NY	PORT WASHINGTON	180	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
9109	FORUM PARKWAY HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	BEDFORD	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9110	HAWTHORNE INN OF DANVILLE	0.1%	38.3	B	IL	DANVILLE	80	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
9111	BEDFORD CARE CTR-MONROE HALL	0.1%	38.3	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	80	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
9112	CHATEAU NRSG & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	IL	WILLOWBROOK	150	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
9113	HIGHLANDS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	TN	MEMPHIS	180	CHAMPION CARE LLC
9114	PALM GARDEN OF GAINESVILLE	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	GAINESVILLE	150	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
9115	MEDICALODGES WICHITA	0.1%	38.3	A	KS	WICHITA	55	MEDICALODGES INC
9116	Accura Healthcare of Ames, LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	IA	Ames	75	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9117	CORAL HARBOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	NEPTUNE CITY	110	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
9118	ST JOSEPH CHATEAU	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	69	VHS MO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
9119	MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON	0.1%	38.3	D	OH	NEW LEXINGTON	82	MAJESTIC MANAGEMENT LLC
9120	Focused Care at Pasadena	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	Pasadena	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
9121	NORTHWOOD HILLS CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	HUMANSVILLE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9122	Mesquite Village Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	Mesquite	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9123	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HOWARD LAKE	0.1%	38.3	A	MN	HOWARD LAKE	32	SANFORD
9124	UNIQUE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER LLC	0.1%	38.3	B	DC	WASHINGTON	230	GOLD PA TRUST
9125	Complete Care at Care Age	0.1%	38.3	B	WI	Brookfield	110	SMS 2021 TRUST
9126	CLEPPER MANOR	0.1%	38.3	B	PA	SHARON	54	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
9127	OPCO Dayton IA LLC	0.1%	38.3	D	IA	Dayton	40	ARBORETA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC
9128	Barton Valley Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	Austin	0	NEXION HEALTH INC
9129	LEXINGTON COURT CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	LEXINGTON	75	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
9130	NORTHLAND REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	118	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9131	Avir at Town Creek	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	PALESTINE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9132	PALMA REAL	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	MATHIS	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9133	Fair Park Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	F	TX	Dallas	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9134	MEADOWLAKE ESTATES	0.1%	38.3	F	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	124	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
9135	FOREST HAVEN NURSING & REHAB CTR, LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	LA	JONESBORO	139	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9136	MINERAL WELLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	B	TX	MINERAL WELLS	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9137	ROSELAWN MANOR	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	SPENCERVILLE	49	HCF INC
9138	FIR LANE CARE	0.1%	38.3	C	WA	SHELTON	135	KH7 HH CDW
9139	Elkhorn Health & Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Elkhorn City	106	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
9140	OIL CITY NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	OIL CITY	95	ISKEB 2024 TRUST
9141	MABRY HEALTH CARE	0.1%	38.3	B	TN	GAINESBORO	80	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9142	SAYLOR LANE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	SACRAMENTO	42	CYPRESS HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9143	HAVEN HEALTH GREEN VALLEY, LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	AZ	GREEN VALLEY	111	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
9144	CLINTON HOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	IN	FRANKFORT	88	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9145	CARRIAGE HILL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	150	DJ PETRINE LLC
9146	AVENTURA AT CARRIAGE INN	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	DAYTON	85	—
9147	Oakpointe Senior Care and Rehab Center	0.1%	38.3	B	MI	Detroit	106	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
9148	Luling Living Center	0.1%	38.3	B	LA	Luling	117	—
9149	Kindred Hospital - Louisville	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	Louisville	47	KNIGHT HEALTH LLC
9150	LOUDOUN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	VA	LEESBURG	100	SJ HEALTHCARE CAPITAL LLC

Showing 9,101–9,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.