Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,501–8,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8501	EXCEL CARE AT EGG HARBOR	0.1%	44.6	B	NJ	EGG HARBOR TOWNSHIP	120	JM AND MAZEL LLC
8502	Heritage Healthcare of Lyndhurst	0.1%	44.6	C	OH	LYNDHURST	119	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
8503	DIAMOND RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	LECANTO	142	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
8504	Liberty Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	NC	Sanford	80	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
8505	PAUL HOUSE & HEALTH CR CTR	0.1%	44.6	C	IL	CHICAGO	110	TEN CHICAGO LLC
8506	GREENVILLE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	GREENVILLE	51	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
8507	The Laurels of Kent	0.1%	44.6	F	MI	Lowell	153	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
8508	THE CARE CENTER OF DEQUINCY	0.1%	44.6	C	LA	DEQUINCY	80	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
8509	MULBERRY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	IN	MULBERRY	159	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8510	AMBERWOOD MANOR	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	NEW PHILADELPHIA	48	BNV DYNASTY LLC
8511	The Laurels of Salisbury	0.1%	44.6	B	NC	Salisbury	80	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
8512	Bedford Court Healthcare Cent.	0.1%	44.6	A	MD	SILVER SPRING	60	WELLTOWER INC
8513	CASTLE PEAK SENIOR LIFE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	C	CO	EAGLE	44	CASSIA
8514	MEADOWVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	LA	MINDEN	182	NEXION HEALTH INC
8515	PALM GARDEN OF WINTER HAVEN	0.1%	41.8	B	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
8516	SHENANDOAH VALLEY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	41.8	C	VA	BUENA VISTA	93	TRIO HEALTHCARE LLC
8517	SPRINGS AT LAKE POINTE WOODS	0.1%	41.8	B	FL	SARASOTA	101	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
8518	OTTERBEIN MIDDLETOWN	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	FRANKLIN	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8519	THROGS NECK EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.1%	41.8	B	NY	BRONX	205	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
8520	Fort Worth Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	Fort Worth	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8521	EAST VIEW HEALTHCARE	0.1%	41.8	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8522	CERES POSTACUTE CARE	0.1%	41.8	B	CA	CERES	46	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
8523	WESTGATE HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR	0.1%	41.8	C	PA	HAVERTOWN	110	—
8524	MAIN WEST POSTACUTE CARE	0.1%	41.8	A	CA	TURLOCK	99	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
8525	REPUBLIC NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	B	MO	REPUBLIC	127	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8526	PEARL AT FORT LAUDERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSIN	0.1%	41.8	D	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	206	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST
8527	WATERFORD CROSSING	0.1%	41.8	B	IN	GOSHEN	87	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
8528	GATEWAY CARE AND RETIREMENT	0.1%	41.8	A	OR	PORTLAND	59	SAPPHIRE HEALTHCARE SRVS
8529	WINDBER WOODS SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION CTR	0.1%	41.8	D	PA	WINDBER	127	—
8530	Premier Rehab and Healthcare at Burlington	0.1%	41.8	C	VT	Burlington	164	—
8531	BEAUMONT REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	F	IN	ANDERSON	200	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8532	VANCREST OF HICKSVILLE	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	HICKSVILLE	61	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
8533	TWILIGHT HOME	0.1%	41.8	B	TX	CORSICANA	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8534	EDGEWOOD MANOR OF LUCASVILLE I	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	LUCASVILLE	96	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
8535	ELDERWOOD AT LIVERPOOL	0.1%	41.8	B	NY	LIVERPOOL	160	—
8536	FUTURE CARE HOMEWOOD	0.1%	41.8	A	MD	BALTIMORE	141	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8537	MIDWAY NEUROLOGICAL / REHAB CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	IL	BRIDGEVIEW	404	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
8538	BROOKHAVEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	BROOKVILLE	99	—
8539	ALMADEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	CA	SAN JOSE	77	GRANCARE LLC
8540	THE SARAH ROBERTS FRENCH HOME	0.1%	41.8	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	CREATIVE SOLUTIONS IN HEALTHCARE INC
8541	Peak Resources - Alamance, Inc	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Graham	142	PEAK RESOURCES INC
8542	WEST OAKS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	AUSTIN	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8543	WOODSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	FL	NAPLES	120	BP BIRCHWOOD TRUST
8544	NORTH POINTE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	MERIDIAN	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
8545	MOUNT CARMEL SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.1%	41.8	C	PA	MT CARMEL	119	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8546	SOUTHERN TENN MEDICAL CENTER SNF	0.1%	41.8	A	TN	WINCHESTER	46	ASCENSION HEALTH
8547	Pine Tree Lodge Nursing Center	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	Longview	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8548	WEST GATE VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	BREWTON	125	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
8549	INDIAN RIVER CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	FL	WEST MELBOURNE	179	LCE PARTNERS LLC
8550	SUNNYSIDE CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	NY	EAST SYRACUSE	80	—

Showing 8,501–8,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.